Tuesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- Monday looked like a vacation day, after opening above VA but in the Friday's range, price moved higher & then rotated all day in a small range, establishing new value higher, condensed into 2.25 range. I expect this area to hold as S/R in tomorrow's session

- keep in mind that we are in an uptrend

- econ news: - 10:00 CB consumer confidence expected better than previous

- I did my levels & preparation, I'll analyze the O/N activity and readjust the levels after that, i can only hope for some volatility and some good trading opportunities (even with the holidays)

- note: we have a gap up unfilled (1163.75-1165.25) & NPOC=1162.50

I'll focus on flexibility & patience as I have a tendency to trade even if I don't have any setup; also I should try to not put so much pressure on me.

Friday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- open above VA, above the range of the day but with a bearish IB & after making new highs for the year, seller stepped in aggressively and moved the prices lower through WVAH, WPOC, WVAL, on strong S=1160.50

- WVA shifted to the upside & WPOC a bit down from yesterday

- did 1 trade +3.75, not too happy about it, being the fact that we had a 16 points range, but at least positive

- VA shifted higher from yesterday, mostly because the big sell off came late in the afternoon

- i'll be bearish if the market goes below 1157.25

- econ news: 8:30 final GDP

9:55 revised UoM sentiment

-I did my levels & preparation, It's important to focus & focus & trade, it's important to not have any expectations; today's activity showed me once again that the market can do anything, anytime & can be totally unpredictable

Thursday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- consolidation, rotational day; managed to finish the day -2.50 points after being +2.50, nothing to say, my fault, expected too much from it, long bias all day, wasn't able to be flexible

- VA shifted to the upside, not by much but it did

- WPOC shifted up from 1161.00 to 1163.00

- closed right on POC

- market found strong S between 1163.00-1161.00 area (WPOC=1163.00), market is bullish as long as it stays above this area

- i'll keep same S/R levels, adjust them after Globex session

- econ news: - 8:30 unemployment claims expected slightly better

-10:00 Bernanke testifies

- i'm not gonna develop any plan, because every time i do, I end up on the wrong side of the trade, over-analyzing & over-thinking; I did my preparation, I have all the levels up, did my TA, I'll analyze the premarket & overnight session, focus, wait for the open, focus & trade

Wednesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- what a day! everything was screaming up, up & up! from the open, through out the day till the break above R! did I take the good trades? NO

- open right on VAH, at the upper extreme of the previous day's range

- bullish IB, rejection from previous day's POC with OTF buyer

- trading in an uptrend & ascending triangle, pressure for a break up

- strong rejection, responsive buyers off the S=1160.25 (3 times!!! during the session)

- value building up higher than previous day

- close near the highs of the range & above VA

- what I've done? where I was? I don't know, wasn't able to focus, wasn't able to pull the trigger, wasn't in the market 100% with my mind; even if in my market prep I had a slightly bullish bias, recognizing the signals during the day, my mind blocked everything & I ended up doing 3 lousy trades loosing -0.50 point.

Well, I do believe I'm improving but I need to work seriously on my patience, confidence & I have to grab my balls in the right situation at the right time, not randomly through out the day, after missing the move for which I've prepared & when that happens just to freeze & be amazed that the expected unpredictable just happened. It is time!!!

- my levels & scenarios for tomorrow:

- we had a late afternoon rally, in order for this rally to be valid, conform with MP principles, the price should remain above VA & previous day high.

I do believe that the rally was made with the participation of OTF buyer, we have solid proof to this: very long buying tail on Monday, rejection from Tuesday's lows with OTF buyer present, single prints created above the conquered R/S=1165.00 (more than 6 times assaulted).

- If we open above VA ( I really expect for this to happen being the fact that VA is located below S=1165.00), I'll be looking to go long in the proximity of VAH or the first single at 1165.75. I do expect initiative buying in this area & a quick rejection from this level if it comes anywhere near. (open test drive)

S=1165.00 it's a confluence of levels now, being the VAH on the composite MP from last 2 days, VAH from Tuesday & hardly worked S from R, I don't think it will return easily below it.

- on the upside we have initial R=1170.50, high of the day, and I expect this level to be taken out easily if this scenario will happen. Next levels R1=1173.50 & R2=1177.00

- on the downside, if the S=1165.00 doesn't hold and buyers doesn't step in I'm gonna look for a short opportunity & I expect a big sell off to the S=1157.25, with other small obstacles along the way: S=1160.25;

- I'm not gonna focus that much on the levels below, because if indeed we get a sell off, the market will tell us and the only trade to take it's short & there are pretty good levels to choose from. My only concern will be to pull the trigger and allow myself to flow.

- if we open above VA & above high of the range & price doesn't show any sign of weakness we'll face initiative buying & price discovery, validating the strong uptrend. It's gonna be hard to go with the flow, but if I don't, I know I'll be left alone in the dust, so if it's gonna be a matter of grabbing my balls, I'll do just that. (open drive)

- if we open like described above & responsive selling will step in, I'll be looking for a short opportunity for a first target to 1165.75

- be aware that we might find another areas of S/R along the way, take them in account

- all these scenarios are based on the open, on the reference points & information that we have from past & should be finalized after analyzing Globex session. Flexibility is the key here.

- I know I'm starting the day with a bullish bias, but on the daily chart we are moving into a steep uptrend with no signs of weakness, every other time-frame is showing strength to the upside. I will be aware of any signs of reversals during the day, if the above scenarios will come true or not & adapt my strategy accordingly.

- econ news: - we have few news that might play a role in market direction

- 8:30 core durable goods, expected better

- 10:00 new home sales, expected better

- I'll be patient & I'll try to execute my plan safe & sound.

Tuesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- open below VA & previous day's range, attracting responsive buyers which drove price back into upper range of Friday

- bullish IB, VA created higher, in the same range as previous week, in the same HVN with S=1157.50 & R=1163.25

- close near the highs of the day, above POC, in the upper part of VA, indicating that the buying power was present from the open through the close

- I made 1 trade for 2 points, very weak result, it's not even worth mention it; I wasn't able to pull myself together after missing the move off the S=1148.50, were I created my scenario for a long, but I just sat there and didn't pulled the trigger

- my levels for tomorrow:

- for every level described below I'll gauge the Globex session, open location & type, possible news and just after that I'll make decisions how to use them

- VAH=1163.00 this is initial R, being in the proximity of the upper R of the HVN where we are trading now

- VAL=1157.25 this is a pretty strong S area which have been established last week, broken but easily reestablished, so IMO it's a good level to go with a break to the downside, or to go long from it on first test

- POC=1159.25

- single prints starting:1157.25-1155.75 (initiative buying)

- R1=1165.00 have been tested 2 times, rejected right away (almost a double top formation) we need to see high volume for the level to be taken out

- R2=1169.00, i see it as a strong R

- if we'll have momentum behind us, like we had in the past 2 days, we might see further upside, fueled by econ news

- initial S=1160.25 proved a nice S specially during O/N sessions, LVN, could be a good location for a long if price gets here, being the fact that price stayed above aafter conquer it

- S=1157.50 almost same area as VAL, in case we'll continue to the upside and price will visit this area could be a good long location

- S=1154.50 strong S=HVN

- i'm not gonna lower with my levels, because of the responsive/initiative buyers I don't expect prices to fall into that area, not today

- econ news: - existing home sales, expecting a bit worse than previous

- we did see pretty good volatility returning to market, so we have to keep this in mind when setting targets for trend trades

- finish the plan after analyzing the Globex & open

Monday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- I'll finalize my trading strategy in the morning after analyzing the Globex session.

- I'll have in mind different strategies in regards to open location: in VA, away from VA:

http://learningtotradethees.blogspot.com/2010/03/market-profile-concepts.html

- in taking the trades described lower, I'll gauge how the market is trading, if we have a high/low volume day, if we have momentum & to which side

- I have to be flexible & have the ability to adapt & apply a suitable strategy that fits market conditions

Note: -if you read this start from the bottom & go up

- S/R levels & TA from 30 min chart (i'm not gonna include Globex session activity):

- to the upside:

• - initial & weak R=1156.25 - was S for 2 sessions, turned into R Friday, also the closing price of the session & for the previous week, just an area to watch not to base trades on it

• - R=1157.25, this is an interesting area because turned into R Friday after being an pretty strong S over the last sessions, price was rejected right away from it. Also it is the starting point of the singles (OTF) & VAH from Friday, IMO we might get a rejection on first touch of this level so could be a nice short entry location. On the other hand, if volume and momentum we'll push prices higher could be a good long location with target the next level R=1160.25.

• - strong R=1160.25 this level was a pretty weak S & turned into R with the participation of OTF, starting point of the singles to the downside, also in the proximity of the WPOC=1160.75 & the base of the HVN. If we get to this level I'm expecting it to hold pretty strong, I'm counting on the OTF and I think it will be a very good short entry location.

- to the downside:

• - initial S=1154.50, POC, just a high volume area, where people found "happiness" during Friday session, area just to watch, not to base trades on

• - S=1152.00, VAL, first true S found on Friday, turned into S from R on FED day, upper base of a HVN. I see this level as an equal opportunity entry point, either long or short, I'll make a much clear decision after analyzing the overnight activity. On a first glance: a good long entry location for a first target POC, a second possible target VAH; a fairly good short location for a move down to the next S

• - strong S=1150.00 area, IMO a pretty strong S area, the presence of OTF buyer, buying tail, WVAL, LVN, long rejection candles during the day when first became S. If we get to this level, I'm expecting it to hold pretty well, I'm counting on OTF and I think it's a very good location for a long.

• - S=1148.50 can be included as an extension of the S=1150.00 area, same theory applies. A break away from this level might be a good short location with target next level of S.

• - strong S=1145.50-1144.00 area, I see this level as a strong S because it's the upper base of an HVN, acted as a key R/S area for the move up we had during the last week. Area have been conquered with conviction last Monday, tested and rejected Tuesday with the help of OTF (buying tail). If price gets here could be a very good long location. On the other hand, if we'll encounter selling pressure off this area, we'll go short for the NPOC=1139.25.

- from Friday MP chart:

- VAH=1157.00

- VAL=1152.00

- POC=1154.50

- single prints from: 1160.25-1157.50 (showing the presence of the OTF sellers)

- buying tail from: 1150.25-1151.75 (showing the presence of OTF buyers which drove the price back into upper part of VA

- NPOC=1139.25 from March 15

- from weekly MP chart (which is too long to fit, 29 pts range):

- WVAH=1163.25=Strong R (quick rejection from this area & failure to converting it in S during 3 trading session)

- WVAL=1150.00 (almost the LOD on Friday, it's an interesting area to keep in mind for the next week, I think it might provide good trading locations)

- weekly close=1156.25 (interesting almost in the middle of VA; above the middle of the weekly range, indicating market balance)

- mid weekly point=1151.00 (in the lower part of the VA)

- WPOC=1160.75 (which can act like a strong R

just some thoughts

- going back over my posts, I realize that I have to make my work more efficient, to organize it & structure it in a much simple & logical way, I need to create a flow of it, same as the trading day

- regarding market review, and market preparation for the next day will be a natural continuation of the trading day

- the review of the day will be just a brief, summarized observation of the movement of the essential elements of the market, which also can trigger the trade setups. I'll analyze this based on the flow of the day, including my trades, explaining the complete theory behind them

- I'll focus more on determining my levels & I'll describe my theory behind each level

- I'll include my vision on various possible scenarios for the day

- at the end of my post I'll include a brief part of the things I done well and the things I have to improve

- as about the trading I'll focus more during the day & cut off the distractions

- I'll take a break at lunch time, for relax, clear my mind & analyze the possible scenarios for the other half of the day

Friday 19.03.2010 - road map

What do we know?

-VAH=1161.75; VAL=1158.50; POC=1160.25

-I will keep same areas of S/R; analyze overnight activity to find other areas or to reinforce the existing ones

-NPOC=1150.50; NPOC=1139.25

We have a pretty narrow VA (trades based on VA are a bit risky if we'll get a bigger range day). From 15 min volume profile chart we can see clearly the HVN, range in which we are stuck, or consolidating. I think if we'll break above the 1162.50 area will act as a strong S for a move higher; on the other side, if we go lower, the 1158.00 area will act as strong R.

From TA point of view, I see we start moving through a descending channel, but the real bearish signal will be the break from the ascending one, which I'm not gonna be surprised if it will coincide with S from HVN.

My trading plan is to not have any bias, let the IB to form, watch closely price action & volume around my areas of interest and fine tune my entries.

I'll analyze in detail and incorporate in my plan the activity from Globex session as well, how price reacted around my levels, etc. I need to develop my system to be able to trade the opportunities during the first hour.

Part of my trading plan for each day from now on is to include more elements from TA to fortify my edge & to choose better entry/exit locations.

Executing my plan with patience & discipline is my main focus for the day.

Note:

- analyze the Globex session & finalize your trading plan before the market opens

- being the market that we had lately I feel it's really important to take small profits when I can. It's better to take smaller profits right now & preserve capital than to fall into the trap of getting upset because I let the big trade get away. I'm smarter than that and I know better. Profits are profits.

Remember the last phrase and repeat it over & over every day.

have to remind this to me everyday until will become a habit

Thursday 18.03.2010 - daily recap

Another small range day, small IB no trend day, maybe just consolidation?

After an open inside VA, and after the small IB was set in stone, we went pretty shy to test the IBH, failing to do this price went down to test S and overnight low, being rejected from 1156.25 area, where on the 5 min chart formed a small double bottom, and went back inside the IB.

The close took place inside the IB, slightly above the VPOC=1161.00 and right on VAH, but below the overnight high.

Does the fact that price failed to test the overnight high show us some signs of weakness? Over the last 2 days we saw acceptance in 1158.00-1163.00 area, a huge HVN developing between these levels.

My trades:

-L 1159.25 exit 1161.25 P/L +2 entry based on VAL, order flow, exit based on DVPOC

-S 1159.25 stopped 1160.25 P/L -1; entry based on failing to take the IBL, misjudge the entry and stopped trading for the day.

Maybe a little frustrated because of loosing 2 other nice setups, due to not focusing enough on trading. Even if we have boring days like we had lately if I decide to trade than I should focus only on trading not anything else. (this is another important rule I have to follow)

Net P/L: +1.00

Thursday 18.03.2010 - road map

What do we know?

-VAH=1162.50; VAL=1158.75; POC=1161.50

-initial R=1163.50; R1=1165.25; strong R=1173.00

-initial S=1157.50; S1=1155.75; S2=1152.00; S3=1149.00; strong S4=1145.50

-NPOC=1150.50; NPOC=1139.25

-be aware that along the way we could find some other areas of S/R

-settlement=1161.00

-be aware of weekly MP levels

-be aware of the unfilled gap

Econ news:

-8:30 core CPI high

-8:30 unemployment claims high

-8:30 CPI m/m medium

-8:30 current account medium

-10:00 philly fed manufacturing index high

Continuation to new highs or pullback, I have to be prepared for both scenarios.

My trading plan is to not have any bias, let the IB to form, watch closely price action & volume around my areas of interest and fine tune my entries.

I'll analyze in detail and incorporate in my plan the activity from Globex session as well, how price reacted around my levels, etc. I need to develop my system to be able to trade the opportunities during the first hour.

Part of my trading plan for each day from now on is to include more elements from TA to fortify my edge & to choose better entry/exit locations.

Executing my plan with patience & discipline is my main focus for the day.

Note:

- analyze the Globex session & finalize your trading plan before the market opens

- being the market that we had lately I feel it's really important to take small profits when I can. It's better to take smaller profits right now & preserve capital than to fall into the trap of getting upset because I let the big trade get away. I'm smarter than that and I know better. Profits are profits.

Remember the last phrase and repeat it over & over every day.

Wednesday 17.03.2010 - daily recap

No trades for me so will be a quick review.

Strong up trend from the start of the day, new yearly highs, we did see strength from overnight session, price didn't came anywhere close to yesterday's VA, making it safer to play from the long side, at least in the first part of the session. Opened with gap up which didn't get filled during the day.

We did see a late afternoon pullback, which got rejected right away from the IBL area right into the middle of the daily range where it closed. Any sign of slowing momentum? Being the first day in the last few when it didn't close at highs.

We can see clearly how during the last couple of days, volume and value is building higher & higher, with previous values left behind untouched. We are moving slowly, in small ranges, but sure & steady to new highs.

Wednesday 17.03.2010 - road map

What do we know?

-VAH=1153.00; VAL=1148.50; POC=1150.50

-initial R=1155.75; R1=1159.50

-strong S=1146.50-1145.50; S=1142.50; S=1140.75; strong S=1136.75

-NPOC=1139.25

-be aware that along the way we could find some other areas of S/R

-settlement=1154.75

-O/H= ; O/L=

-WIBH=1155.75; WIBL=1136.50

-be aware of other weekly levels

Econ news:

-8:30 PPI

-8:30 Core PPI

-10:30 Crude oil inventories

-14:00 Bernanke speech

Continuation to new highs or pullback, I have to be prepared for both scenarios.

My trading plan is to not have any bias, let the IB to form, watch closely price action & volume around my areas of interest and fine tune my entries.

I'll analyze in detail and incorporate in my plan the activity from Globex session as well, how price reacted around my levels, etc. I need to develop my system to be able to trade the opportunities during the first hour.

Part of my trading plan for each day from now on is to include more elements from TA to fortify my edge & to choose better entry/exit locations.

Executing my plan with patience & discipline is my main focus for the day.

Note:

- analyze the Globex session & finalize your trading plan before the market opens

- being the market that we had lately I feel it's really important to take small profits when I can. It's better to take smaller profits right now & preserve capital than to fall into the trap of getting upset because I let the big trade get away. I'm smarter than that and I know better. Profits are profits.

Remember the last phrase and repeat it over & over every day.

Tuesday 16.03.2010 - daily recap

My first & last FED day.

Even if we had a bullish sentiment building up during the overnight session, with price trading above VA for the entire night with a low=1144.50 and never retesting that low during the regular trading hours. Setting IBL at 1145.50 and being rejected right away from that level, I could have find a pretty good location for a long between 1146.50 & IBH=1149.00 (which held very strong as S during the entire session) only in regular trading day not a FED one.

This being said I'm not gonna analyze more this day as I concluded that I'm not going to trade a day like this, not even thinking to trade a FED day anymore.

I made one trade after the news release (S 1153.25 exit 1150.50) but I felt very uncomfortable with it, sweating all over the place and really didn't worthed the risk. I like being relaxed when in a trade, being confident in my entry reason, I have to love trading not being stressed out because of it.

As Mike pointed out so well, I have to trade now, with 1 contract, the same way I'm gonna trade with 10-50-100 or even more contracts; and definitely that's not the way to trade.

Overall it was a good day for me as I took & learn a valuable lesson: in order to become consistently profitable, to become a better trader & a successful one, I should trade with the same responsibility, respect my plan and rules all the time.

A new trading rule emerged from this lesson: for my safety & sanity I will not trade any FED day or any news release. I have to play my cards right not gambling.

Net P/L +2.75

Tuesday 16.03.2010 - road map

What do we know?

-VAH=1143.50; VAL=1138.25; POC=1139.25

-initial R/S=1146.50; R2=1150.25; R2=1152.00

-S1=1140.75; S2=1136.75; S3=1134.00

-be aware that along the way we could find other areas of intra-day S/R

-settlement=1145.75

-O/H= ; O/L=

-WVAH=1142.25; WVAL=1132.50

-WVVAH=1148.50; WVVAL=1141.25

-single prints on the weekly profile from: 1147.75-1150.25

Econ news:

-8:30 building permits high

-8:30 housing starts medium

-8:30 import prices medium

-14:15 federal funds rate high

My trading plan is to not have any bias, let the IB to form, watch closely price action & volume around my areas of interest and fine tune my entries.

I'll analyze in detail and incorporate in my plan the activity from Globex session as well, how price reacted around my levels, etc. I need to develop my system to be able to trade the opportunities during the first hour.

Part of my trading plan for each day from now on is to include more elements from TA to fortify my edge & to choose better entry/exit locations.

Executing my plan with patience & discipline is my main focus for the day.

Note:

- analyze the Globex session & finalize your trading plan before the market opens

- being the market that we had lately I feel it's really important to take small profits when I can. It's better to take smaller profits right now & preserve capital than to fall into the trap of getting upset because I let the big trade get away. I'm smarter than that and I know better. Profits are profits.

Remember the last phrase and repeat it over & over every day.

volume composite to watch the evolution & reaction of HVN & LVN

Monday 15.03.2010 - daily recap

After the open right on VAL price moved to POC & set the IB. A first retest of the IBH was weak barely trading through VAL, sellers stepped in & moved price all the way down to S=1136.75 through 1139.00=NPOC, a HVN where we find acceptance before moving up into the next HVN where we traded last week.

We had a move back up to 1139.00 which became a nice intra-day S, off this level buyers stepped in & drove the price back to IBH, back into the VA & to 1146.50=strong R during the last 2 sessions. During Globex session we break below down trend line from Friday, which added a bit of bearish sentiment, for the first part of the day.

I'm not gonna jump to any conclusions after today, I don't want to create any bias for my trading decisions, I'll be as much objective as I can, I need to be.

My levels played out very well, I just have to trust them a bit more. My morning preparation, including the analysis of the overnight activity and the open hour helped me a lot in executing my plan with confidence, even if I made only one trade. So I'll keep doing this until I'll get a better feel & confidence in it so I could include one trade during the first hour.

Note: - I need to stay more focused during the day, because I canceled an buy order due to not focusing enough and missed the big move up from S to R, a pretty easy & risk free trade, fact which made me nervous enough.

Ideal trades: after the IB

- S 1143.50 VAL with ultimate target strong S=1136.75

- L 1139.00 filled NPOC & intra-day S for a test of IBH

My trades:

- S 1142.50 exit 1138.25 P/L +4.25 weak move up to test the VAL & IBH, WVAH, a small pullback from an intra-day downtrend, initial target was S=1136.75 but didn't got the balls to hold it till there, even if delta volume showed weakness.

Net P/L: +4.25

Monday 15.03.2010 - road map

What do we know?

- VAH=1146.25; VAL=1143.50; POC=1145.25

- R1=1146.50, R2=1150.25, R3=1152.00

- S1=1142.00, S2=1140.25, S3=1136.75, S4=1134.00

- be aware that along the way we could find other areas of intra-day S/R

- NPOC=1139.00 from 11.03

- O/H=1146.50 ; O/L=1140.25

- Settlement=1146.50 (week close)

Econ news:

- 8:30 Empire state manufacturing index medium

- 9:00 TIC long-term purchase high

- 9:15 Capacity utilization rate medium

- 9:15 Industrial production medium

My trading plan is to not have any bias, let the IB to form, watch closely price action & volume around my areas of interest and fine tune my entries.

I'll analyze in detail and incorporate in my plan the activity from Globex session as well, how price reacted around my levels, etc. I need to develop my system to be able to trade the opportunities during the first hour.

Part of my trading plan for each day from now on is to include more elements from TA to fortify my edge & to choose better entry/exit locations.

Executing my plan with patience & discipline is my main focus for the day.

Note:

- analyze the Globex session & finalize your trading plan before the market opens

- being the market that we had lately I feel it's really important to take small profits when I can. It's better to take smaller profits right now & preserve capital than to fall into the trap of getting upset because I let the big trade get away. I'm smarter than that and I know better. Profits are profits.

Remember the last phrase and repeat it over & over every day.

-vol profile composite for observing the HVN & LVN and how they react as S/R levels, areas of acceptance/rejection

Monday 15.03.2010 - Road map

my colors

- explanation for the colors I use to draw levels on my charts:

- green lines - S

- red lines - R

- cyan lines - VAH/L

- magenta line - POC

- yellow lines - IBH/L

- black lines - NPOC

- violet line - weekly close

- orange line - middle of the weekly range

Friday 12.03.2010 - Daily recap

After an open way above VA, on new highs, premarket move being fueled by better than expected retail sales numbers, sellers stepped in on a weaker UoM consumer sentiment and price went down to 1142.00 support area and VVAH from Thursday. The IBL was set in stone at this number, price being rejected right away from this level, finding strong S in 1143.00-1144.00 area.

Rest of the day was a range bound between strong R=1146.50 also the high from previous day & S=1143.00. We saw acceptance in this area, volume building up between these levels, price never went down to test the VA from Thursday.

These type of days seems to become very common lately, one big move either in the first hour or the last one and just ranging for the whole day between 3-4 points S/R levels. I think I should develop a strategy for trading these morning opportunities by observing and analyzing more closely the overnight & premarket action; see if I can find a strong edge to rely & trade on.

Ideal trades: after the IB

- being a range day: long at S=1143.50 exit & reverse at R=1146.25, could have been done 4 times;

My trades:

- L 1144.00 stopped 1144.00 P/L -0.00; S=1143.50 for a test of IBH.

- L 1144.00 exit 1145.00 P/L +1.00; S=1143.50 test for IBH, exit after failed to break 1146.50 area.

- S 1144.75 exit 1143.00 P/L +1.75; fail to break R, VPOC=1145.25 acting like small R, break from ascending channel, exit failed to break S.

Poor trade management on the first 2 trades, because I was too greedy, expecting a move up to test the IBH after the IBL was set and rejected and I set my target according to my expectations. I underestimated the significance of 1146.50 resistance level which should have been my exit target at least on the first trade.

Net P/L: +2.75

Friday 12.03.2010 - Road map

Today being my first time rollover day I preferred not to trade.

What do we know?

- we had a nice break above IBH with a close at the high; this late day rally happening in a rollover day makes me think twice about it's health, but we'll see tomorrow (see "previous day close" from the post "market profile concepts" for possible scenarios)

- VAH=1141.25; VAL=1136.50; POC=1139.00

- LOD=1134.00 possible S

- HOD=1146.25 possible initial R

Econ news:

- 8:30 core retail sales expected lower

- 8:30 retail sales expected lower

- 9:55 prelim UoM cons sent expected higher

- 10:00 business inventories expected higher

I don't know a few things about days after rollover, like I don't know how the previous month levels are adjusted to the new traded contract: S/R levels, significant single prints, NPOC, volume nodes. I don't know how and if I have to take them in account in my daily trading plan.

My trading plan for tomorrow is not to have any bias, just let the IB to form, watch price action, see how price will react at known levels and trade with extra caution according with what the market will do. My scenarios for the first part of the day are based on close/open price in relation to VA theory & trading the IB; for the second part of the day I'll add probabilities of trading in relation with dVA.

Executing my plan with patience & discipline is my main focus for the trading day.

market profile concepts

This will be an ongoing post as I'll learn & observe more on MP theory.

- opening price: - if the opening price is higher or lower than the previous day close this creates a gap on a price chart. In market profile this gap represents a shift in market sentiment. Like all gaps, the greater the gaps the more significant it is. A market gapping on a economical news and on heavy volume has much more significance than a market gapping with no news and light premarket volume. The first gap has a chance of being a continuation gap while the other one has a high probability of a gap fill.

- opening price in relation to VA:

1. - if price opens above/below VA and the previous days range, this creates a complete market imbalance. This offer a high risk but high reward trading opportunity
2. - if price opens above/below VA but within the previous days range, this indicates a market imbalance but not as significant as the first one. This creates a medium risk and medium reward trading opportunity
3. - if price opens within the VA and the previous days range, this indicates a complete market balance. Unless price extends above/below VA, this creates a low risk but low reward trading opportunity

- previous days close in relation to todays open: - any late afternoon rally or decline can mean 2 things: either the longer time frame participant stepped in to buy/sell aggressively or the short term traders are liquidating their positions. To understand the difference is crucial.

For ex: - if the previous days late afternoon market action was a rally and price closed at the upper extreme of it's range; this could indicate a short covering which fueled a rally or actual longer-time frame buyers stepped in.

- the opening price action is crucial to understanding this.

1. - if price can remain above the previous days high and VAH, this means that the rally was valid and longer time frame buyers was present. The previous days high and VAH will act as support.
2. - if the market opened above the previous day high and VAH and was quickly rejected falling bellow value, this indicates short covering. Understanding price acceptance from rejection is crucial.

- previous days close: - if the previous days close remain in value, this indicates market balance. If the price remains above/below VA this represents market imbalance.

- market excess: - market excess exists when prices have extended too far above/below VA. Other time frame player will enter aggressively to return price back to value. A single print tail below/above value is a good sign of market excess. On a price chart this is where prices find S/R with a quick reversal never to test that level again.

These levels are very important because they can act as key future S/R levels and represents price rejection, no acceptance.

- POC: - the price level in which the highest volume occurred. This can act as a key S/R point. This is also commonly used as a level to place stops.

- VAH & VAL: - these are 2 important pivots. When prices are trading within VA, the VAH will act as R and VAL as S. If prices do break out of VA, the VAH will act as S and VAL as R.

- IB: - H/L of the first hour of trading. If the IB is narrow this could indicate a trend day. A wide IB can indicate a market rotation from the upper range to the lower range.

Thursday 11.03.2010 - Road map

What do we know?

- it's rollover day

- ES is building a HVN up here

- the uptrend-line is respected by now

- VAH=1146.75, VAL=1142.75, POC=1144.75

- WIBH=1145.25, WIBL=1134.00

to the downside:

- single prints from March 09 1135.75-1134.00

- single prints from March 03 1132.25-1131.00 & 1129.00-1126.00

- NPOC=1133.25 from March 03

- initial S=1136.00; S=1132.50; Strong S=1126.00

- be aware that along the way we could find other areas of intra-day S

to the upside:

- R=1147.50

- that's all I have for the upside

Note: - 8:30 trade balance

- 8:30 unemployment claims

My trading plan is to not have any bias, just let the IB to form, observe price action and fine tune the entries around my levels. I might consider taking a trade during the first hour if we'll trade around a major level and I'll have confirmation from order flow & price action.

Patience, discipline & executing my plan is my main focus for the day.

Wednesday 10.03.2010 - Daily recap

Another low volatility day. After opening inside VA, above POC market went straight up into R=1147.25, making a new high at 1148.00, not a very significant one. We saw rejection of this level and a nice rotation back down to the previous day POC, after this market rotate inside the IBL & R.

My day was a pretty frustrating one, after closing at BE a very nice short position without any valid reason, a trade which was in my plan to take it if market gets there (probably I was too spooked out because my plan working so well), I lost my focus, my patience and I made mistake after mistake, again.

In building my discipline I recognize this pattern that keeps occurring: loosing my focus & discipline after a loosing trade or a bad one and instead of focusing on the next trade I keep making mistakes until I take a break and reassess the situation.

I'm not going to focus on this weakness but I'm aware of it, I know it's there so I'm going to focus on my strengths, my progress & development. I have to focus on confidence in my setups & just trade what & how the market is telling me to trade with no stress and no overthinking. I need to see progress and improvement in order to become successful.

Ideal trades: after the IB
- L 1145.50 break of WIBH=1145.25 exit at R=1147.25

- S 1147.25 rejection from R, break of IBH exit at IBL=1140.00 or POC=1139.50

- L 1140.00 IBL exit 1145.75 IBH

My trades:

- S 1147.25 exit 1147.25 P/L 0.00 R, break of IBH, got spooked out and exit

- L 1146.00 exit 1144.75 P/L -1.25 IBH for a retest of R

- L 1145.25 exit 1143.25 P/L -1.75 wrong reasons, no focus & patience

I took a break and regrouped

- L 1144.00 exit 1143.25 P/L -0.75 pullback for IBH test, too early, exit order flow

- L 1142.75 exit 1146.75 P/L +4.00 VAH, intraday S=1142.25, dVPOC, dVAL exit above IBH in front of R

Net P/L: +0.25

Wednesday 10.03.2010 - Road map

This is a chart from Feb 16th - March 10 with Vol profile composite just to have a clear image of the HVN & LVN.

This is a composite vol profile from Jan 18th - March 10

What do we know?

- we are in a HVN where we see acceptance and value here

- VAH=1143.00; VAL=1136.50; POC=1139.50

to the downside:

- single prints from yesterday 1135.75-1134.00

- single prints from March 03 1132.25-1131.00 & 1129.00-1126.00

- NPOC=1133.25 from March 03

- initial S=1136.00; S=1132.50; Strong S=1126.00

- be aware that along the way we could find other areas of intra-day S

- O/L=1137.75

to the upside:

- single prints from yesterday 1145.00-1145.25

- initial R= 1143.00=LVN; R=1145.25=LVN; Strong R=1147.25 HOY

- O/H=1142.25

Remarks: - initial R=1143.00 it's the same level as VAH

- initial S=1136.00 it's almost same level as VAL

- VA from volume profile is inside VA from MP

- VPOC almost as POC

Note: - 2:00 PM - Federal Budget Balance - medium impact

My trading plan is to not have any bias, just let the IB to form, observe price action and fine tune the entries around my levels. I might consider taking a trade during the first hour if we'll trade around a major level and I'll have confirmation from order flow & price action.

Patience, discipline & executing my plan is my main focus for the day.

Tuesday 09.03.2010 - Daily recap

It's for days like this one when I have to be fully focused, patient & disciplined so I can take advantage of the fairly wide range a "rara avis" for the last weeks.

I have to admit that I traded with the wrong mindset today, I traded with a short bias (because of the unfinished business bellow current levels: single prints, NPOC, strong R, proximity of highs, lack of news, etc.).

I was very wrong from early morning instead of just going with the momentum, just trading with the flow and being dynamic & relaxed I made mistake after mistake.

This should be a good lesson for me and something I'll make sure not to repeat:

- trade & have no bias

- theres is no "should" in trading

- be dynamic & objective

Nothing more to say about today except the fact that once again I should practice PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE, have a good reason to go in a trade, HAVE A PLAN & TRADE THE PLAN.

The S/R levels hold fairly well during the day, so a plan based just on those levels, IB and price action could have been a winning one.

Ideal trades: after the IB was set in stone

- L 1138.75 pullback & continuation for testing IBH into R exit 1144.00 R

- S 1144.00 brake of s/R exit 1137.75 single print filled on the way down

My trades:

- S 1136.75 exit 1138.50 P/L -1.75 no patience, no plan & widened my stop

- S 1138.75 exit 1140.50 P/L -2.00 no patience, no plan & widened my stop

- L 1139.50 exit 1138.25 P/L -1.25 long from IBH, too early in trade and got stopped out, (didn't widened my stop)

after this mess I took a break, regrouped and I gave myself one last chance for the day

- S 1143.50 exit 1139.50 P/L +4.00 short at break of s/R=1144.00 exit at IBH

Net P/L: -1.00

Tuesday 09.03.2010 - Road map

For Tuesday I'm expecting the R=1140.00-1141.75 area (HVN) to hold pretty well, so I'm gonna try to short any move up into R. I'll be aware of NPOC=1143.75 as a high probability target on the upside, also a good location for short. Same R levels as Monday are in play.

To the downside we still have some strong targets which can act like a magnet:

- single prints at 1135.25; from 1132.25 to 1131.00 & from 1129.00 to 1126.00=strong S=LVN=rejection area & responsive buyers

- NPOC=1133.25

Same S levels as Monday are in play.

If we'll gonna have a move down from value or from R I'll go short with possible targets all the above. Based on the open in relation to VA, location of the IB and the way it's being build, price action and order flow I'm gonna choose my trade location.

Note: no major news, no catalyst, so there are higher odds for a range day.

Monday 08.03.2010 - Daily recap

- after we opened above VAH, trading right in R=1140.00 and being rejected, ES made a small IB=2.50 points, (IB=1140.50-1137.00)

- I was expecting a brake of IBL by more than 1 point, the move down find a quick S=1136.00 and traded for the whole day in a 4.50 points range developing a slow and boring trading day

- after trading above VAH, probing the O/H, finding a quick R, not testing the VAL, setting this very small IB, failure to brake the IB, failure to fill the singles, lack of catalyst, I knew this is one of those days when the only one happy is the broker

Ideal trades:

- S 1139.75 fail to test IBH with exit 1137.25 IBL

- L 1137.25 IBL exit 1139.25 fail to test IBH

- S 1139.25 fail to test IBH exit 1136.00 LOD, S

- L 1136.25 S exit 1140.00 R

My trades:

- S 1138.75 exit 1140.00 P/L -1.25 / no patience, too early in the trade, expecting a move down to POC, which never happened

- S 1139.50 exit 1138.00 P/L +1.50 / entry fail to test IBH, exit after fail to take out IBL

- L 1136.25 exit 1137.25 P/L +1.00 / entry at S exit based on order flow

- after these trades and based on slow action I chose to stay aside; not too much to say about this type of day

Net P/L: +1.25

Monday 08.03.2010 - Road map

Being in an uptrend with a high probability to take out the high of the year at 1147.25, maybe sometime this week maybe not, and starting to build value above 1126 area which is an LVN, LVA, rejection & responsive buyers area, held as strong S Friday, I'm expecting to hold as a strong S Monday as well and I'll be looking for long ops if we'll trade down in this area.

On the upside we have initial R=1138.75 high of Friday and 1139.50=LVN=rejection area. Next possible target on the upside is strong R=1144.00 & 1147.25. Don't forget NPOC=1143.75.

If we trade below 1126 I'm gonna look for short ops but with tighter stops and T1=1122.75 next S area & WIBH, or if the order flow and momentum confirm T2=1119.50=NPOC from 04.03.2010.

If we'll gonna have a range day I'm gonna try to short VAH, R, IBH, dVAH and take profits in the middle of the range or if the order flow confirms take profits and reverse to long at VAL, S, IBL, dVAL.

Note: -that we have single prints at 1135.25 and starting at 1132.25=VAL=S till 1131.00 & from 1129.00 to 1126.00=strong S=LVN.

Note: no major news, no catalyst, so there are higher odds for a range day.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" - Seneca

or My daily trading plan.

Each morning before market opens I have to do my premarket preparation, map the reference points, the H/L VN, S/R levels, trend lines, the way the VA is moving is there acceptance? is there rejection?
low volume = rejection
high volume = acceptance

• - think about what happened the previous day, where we had traded, what type of day it was (trend, normal, range), where the action was, where the VA is located compared with the other days
• - make up the charts with S/R levels, I take this from MP of the weekly & previous day, as well as from areas like HVN & LVN
• - mark down the VAH, VAL, NPOC, NVPOC & single prints
• - look at the overnight action (OH, OL), what happened in other markets around the world, what news were out that may affect S/R levels
• - note what major economical news are to be released for the actual day and how could influence the day
• - visualize the action that may unfold. (I think this is something hugely important, after I read about it as being used by many successful professional traders as well as top athletes, is something I'll train for and something I'll try to get better at).

It's all a matter of preparation & envisioning. Do the morning preparation, than envision what the market could do by looking at the context. But I have to learn to update that vision as the market progresses. By doing this over and over again, I can achieve a comfort level and confidence to execute my plan without stress. I know that to be able to see this type of vision takes a bit of time and experience.

I don't have to get married with expectations, but it helps to visualize the probabilities ahead of time so I can react.

I have a clear plan for each trading day, trade the plan. It's just a job and all I have to do is my job and try to get good at it.

What the market does outside of my objective, is no interest to me, because I executed my plan and this is what matters.

RELAXED, CALM, COOL & FOCUSED!!!

pieces of the puzzle

This will be an ongoing post, as I'll discover new pieces along the way

- DON'T THINK SHORT TERM, THINK LONG TERM.
- you don't have to trade all the time, you only have to trade when it's a steal & deal; or "when all your planets are aligned".
- combining MP with TA we can get a confluence of levels, which lead as to CONFIDENCE.
- ES is one of the easiest markets to trade intra-day as long as you play by the rules.
- don't trade in the middle of nowhere.
- we can't guess & know where the price is going so each day we need to wait for the market to give us some reference points.

- market can do anything, anytime
- there is so much going on in the markets, at any point in time, so you should only focus on what you know for sure.

- everything you need to know is in the charts.

- what we know or daily reference points:

• -from previous day:

- previous day H/L

- Globex H/L
- Settlement price
- S/R from longer time frames & MP
- VAH, VAL & POC
- HVN & LVN

- WIB H/L

• -from current day:

- IBH & IBL
- dVAH, dVAL & dPOC

Note: (I'll focus on these reference points for now and try to develop a sound trading plan around them. I'll keep an eye on other points like 1.5 x IB, 2 x IB, etc.)

- the most important thing is PATIENCE, wait for the price to get to your levels and grow the confidence to take the opportunity when it presents itself and confirmed by the order flow.