jan 21 - prep

- ON inventory appears to be long, into the current BA, as well above rally high reference

- i'll be focusing on price acceptance above 1280.00, being aware that we have singles above from 1284.25 to 1291.50

- also we are trading in the upper half of the BA

- looks like we'll open gap up, a gap in the direction of the trend; i will monitor the attempt of the market to change the perceived value. I will go in the direction of the gap if its not filled fairly quick.

jan 20 - review

- as in stated in prep i was monitoring for price acceptance above/below rally high @1280.00 from yesterday

- we opened on current BAL and soon the price sliced through 1275.00 LVN, i was being aware of that scenario as well, as i mentioned in my yesterday review.

- as soon as price came below O i was looking for a short, tried 1275.00 but a second too late and didn't get filled than just entered 3 ticks below. My T1 was hit at +2.00 points, but than again i was expecting too much from it and the exit for the 2nd contract was poor. (This will be my next focus and my goal for improvement in weeks to come, as much depends on it).

- my next step was to just wait for the news to come out, didn't even check the results of it; but considering the location where we were traded (BAL) and the fact that that very important reference area @1275.00 (not even LVN but separation between 2 distant BA's) was breached I was looking to trade from the short side, for the first part of the day, or until the conditions are changing

- price coming below O, OF selling, CCI showing momentum to the downside, range bars creating a short setup, i jumped in (based on my previous trade i entered without patience and in this case i had to take some heat, 1 point, and as a result i had a 2 ticks worse entry than my plan, be aware that over time that adds up). However my trade was successful, of course with bad exit on 2nd contract.

- i had another short based on the higher odds of the IBL to be broken as the pressure was to the downside, OF selling, creating a divergence with price, which finally break. The tempo in the break wasn't too aggressive, thing that made me think about the move being limited

- slowed tempo at the lows, a very nice bottoming picture, with a divergence with price, making lower low, and OF flat (no aggressive sellers, or lots of responsive buyers absorbing), created a strong long setup@1268.75

- i think in the 2nd part of the day you have to really take in account dVPOC, as you have already indications about whats going on and what have been accomplished and what didn't; i'll work in detailing the tactics around it

- in this case, dVPOC shifted lower to 1270.00 stopping the move and offering S (it is a very strong signal when dVPOC shifts lower with price diverging with OFinto a bullish div), price climbed to 33EMA, dVPOC shifted higher to 1272.00 offering S for the move above midIB and the same area at 1275.00. dVPOC shifted higher offering S for the final push up to 1280.00, rally high. Value was dragged by price higher. All the way up all the elements aligned for supporting the continuation of the move: MP was one time-framing higher from I period through N; OF was buying, CCI turned to the upside, price climbed above EMA, nice range bars setups, not to mention location of where everything took place, decelerating tempo to the downside, that area between BA's.

- for tomorrow i'll monitor if we get acceptance below/above 1275.00; still believe its an important area

- i will apply BA tactics either way

jan 20 - prep

- ON inventory is looking to be short, so i'll be aware for a possible short covering rally (the market is not that weak as it appears to be ON); or if the market is weak it has to continue on its way down

- price went below 1275.00 ON, breaching the LVN

- ON R @1281.75 MVPOC

- ON S @1274.00 previous BAH

- POC@1282.25, not really migrating lower with price, monitoring for a possible short covering rally to it; if that happens apply specific tactics

- other R above:

VPOC@1283.00

MVPOC@1281.75

midBA@1283.50

VAH@1283.75

singles@1284.25 - 1291.75

- other S below:

NVPOC@1270.50

NPOC@1269.50

midBA@1266.50

- BA scenarios, with monitoring for either S @ current BAL holding or S @ BAH will be broken and price will go lower into previous BA

- fulcrum of the move will be 1280.00 rally high

jan 19 - review

- i had my first losing day since i started sim trading. Also i skipped my morning training today and woke up late (9.00 am). All in all i wasn't prepared, mentally in the first place, for a trading day, as i outlined in my plan. Possible feelings of guilt made me take bad decisions at critical points during the trading session.

- first thing: i will never say pass to my daily routine, as it is very important inn preparing me mentally and physically for the session (i am entering in competing mode, feeling confident, my mind is clearer and i am ready for action). If, for whatever reason, i will skip my routine i will not trade at all that day.

- as i mentioned in my prep, i was looking to apply the spike rules, monitoring for price acceptance below or above the spike, with the bottom of it @1290.75 acting as S/R

- ON activity was within the spike, however during the premarket price moved below S which turned into R

- selling pressure was on the O

- CCI was showing momentum to the downside

- price found rejection from 1290.75, strong R

- all this reasons should made me to look just for short opportunities (for some stupid reason i was biased long). The spike tactics, with price trading below it, was the best trading scenario today.

- you can see at 1,2,3 & 4 on the range chart, all of them were strong short signals:

a) - price was below spike

b) - price was below O

c) - price was below 33 EMA

d) - OF selling

e) - CCI was showing downside momentum

f) - red candles engulfing green ones, in downtrend and at strategic locations (bottom of the spike & VPOC; mid IB, IBL, MVPOC)

- in hindsight was an easy day, playing just the short side, from the open as the S was broken, but being so biased, i couldn't focus and lost 6 points in 2 trades, going long when i had no reason to do so.

- price got rejected from 1275.00, LVN, and missed to close the gap by a tick

- BA has a nice excess to the upside from 1295.00 to 1292.00

- i'll be aware of the extremes, as well as of the middle of it

- we had a shy rally high to 1280.00; i'll be monitoring tomorrow for price acceptance/rejection at this level; acceptance above change is occurring, acceptance below keeps the pressure to the downside

- we also had a poor low @1275.00 (suggesting that the rejection from LVN wasn't rejected right away, and was more of a softening balloon; and i'll expect for the price to just slice through it if pressure will be there, or at the next probe)

- tactical targets below are NPOC@1269.50 & NPOC@1264.00, so monitoring for price getting back inside of previous BA or S holding (provided by the previous BAH and current BAL)

jan 19 - prep

- late in the day we had a spike in Q and R periods, with the low at 1290.75, I will apply the spike rules and tactics

- focus on 2 days BA extremes below

- ON found acceptance within the spike

jan 18 - review

- we opened on VPOC from friday, into the second distribution of Friday (treat that as an individual day), based on that, my initial S and R were the extremes of that small distribution. On the range chart with OF i saw first rejection from initial R at tha candle finished at 9.41, red on positive delta; so i calibrated my cross hair and when the following candle closed down, i placed my order at 1289.00 with T1@1287.00 and T2 trailing

- now, i should have exited around 1287.00 as i saw that initial S holding (overlapping bars; lower delta but not price = bullish divergence) but i didn't and i exited at +1 @ 1288.00

- than, because that initial S holding, OF turned to buy, price moved above Open, i entered long @1288.25, 33EMA, had in mind quick exit if bar closing below open and below EMA with T1@1290.25. For T2 i expected RE up, and still didn't exited when OF turned to selling. I moved my stop at 1287.50, below open but too close to price action; i should use strategic location for the stop, like placing it below S area @1286.00 (still between my initial stop guidelines)

- still believe in the upper move as initial, and critical S held and we moved back up above Open, closing above EMA still could be just a balancing day and have to work on my exits for 2nd contract

- this was my first part of the day, a gain of +4.25 points in 2 trades

- for the second half of the day, we can see price moving higher, after the attempt to auction lower price got rejected from Friday's VPOC@1287.75, showing us that S moved higher (critical piece of information), coupled with location of the trading range (top of Friday's range), OF turning to buy, the odds were high that a RE to the upside could be the most probable thing to happen.

- based on my trading plan, it offered a long entry location @1288.50 and plenty of occasions off dVPOC@1290.00, which held as S (S moved higher, the same critical piece of information)

- from the MP chart we can see that we were one time-framing higher whole day except in P period, when an attempt to stop the one time-framing higher was not followed by follow through and immediately after the break to the upside occurred. I think thats another very important piece of information, of something attempting to happen, that doesn't happen and offers possibilities in the opposite direction. (will be part of my arsenal, and act without hesitation next time when that happens, i'll document it as a setup)

jan 17 & 18 - prep

- friday we had an uptrend day, with price extending the trading range from the bottom of the 2 days BA to 1290.00

- the profile was elongated showing trade facilitation

- ON extended the range to the upside, and inventory is looking to be short???

- initial S area: 1284.25-1283.50 top of the 2 day BA

- S1@1281.75 VPOC of the BA

- S2@1276.00 bottom of the BA

- we have the gap below 1276.00-1274.50 with LVN@1275.00

- initial R@1186.75

- R1@1288.25 POC

- R2@1290.00

- the upper distribution from friday will be treated as a separate day; i will monitor for price acceptance below the low of it or above

- BA scenarios applies, with monitoring price acceptance/rejection and setups around BAH and initial R, for an initial area to sell with destination trade the other BA extreme

- or acceptance of price at BAH and possible move up, with long around BAH and destination trade ONH@1291.50