jan 12 - review

- ON inventory was long; things that could happen are:

1. either market is strong and continues on its way up, taking the form of a short covering rally or developing into a trending day

2. market is weak and an adjustment of inventory takes place under the form of a long liquidation break

- today open was out of balance but there was a slight lack of confidence. However, the auction down in its attempt to close the gap had a slow tempo, and was met by strong bids, responsive buyers and after the price climbed back up above the open it didn't look back. The tempo to the upside was accelerated, probably by short covering rally of those who were short in the hole, expecting for the gap to be closed

- the shape of the profile was suggesting a short covering rally with an afternoon pullback (usually one afternoon inventory adjustment). The low of the pullback @1279.00 will be an important reference for tomorrow; the pullback low is used to determine if there has been any meaningful change relative to the previous day, if the pullback low is not violated, there has not been any meaningful change in the opposite direction of the prior days trend. Price acceptance above this level signifies pressure to the upside; price acceptance below signifies pressure to the downside

- also there was a spike in J and K period, spike tactics will be applied as well; reinforcing the pullback low with the spike low ... to analyze further after ON activity

- market started one time-framing higher, signs of continuation in the direction of the ON inventory. I have to monitor for signs of one time-framing stopping, which means that change has occurred or is about to occur

- today market stopped one time-framing in E period, which took with 2 ticks the low of D. I should have been aware that change is about to occur

- market developed a small BA in F, G & H period and a break out of that BA occurred in I period, however the tempo wasn't strong to the downside (probably just an intra-day inventory adjustment) and the move was stopped above the O (bullish sign); the former VPOC@1279.00 served as S and as low of the pullback.

- entry signal was valid on the OF, too, which found S offering visually strategic trade location at IBH with clear targets to the upside: dVPOC@1282.25 and HOD (also 33EMA offered S in the pullback). Tempo accelerated to the upside, confirming the bullish sentiment


- open out of balance to the upside, with gap up; according to my market prep, I was monitoring the gap fill or the failure of filling it. We had an open auction type, low confidence, and price went to test lower in an attempt to fill the gap. The sellers weren't able to push prices lower and were met by responsive buyers, also they weren't too aggressive, therefore they failed to close the gap!!! confirming my view and hypothesis for the gap of being valid

- based on these observations and on my trading plan from pre-market, I decided to trade just from the long side as long as we maintain above 1273.75.

- first rejection from 1276.00 (see the DD from ON) and the presence of responsive buyers, seen on the price ladder, OF turning to buy and failure to fill the gap triggered a long entry conform with my plan@1277.25 - 2 contracts - T1@1279.25 and trailing the 2nd contract (as I envisioned an up day with higher odds of RE to the upside); initial stop@1274.75 (inside the ON S area)

- also the market came down to 33EMA, which held as a good S; if the price would have closed below the 33EMA, I would have got out from my long

- 1277.25 turned into dVPOC, fact that reinforced my confidence in trade

- first scale was hit @ 1279.25 for +2.00 points

- IBH was set and dVPOC shifted to 1279.00, market showed signs of continuation (one-timeframing higher; VA acceptance at new range, OF buying). For this reasons I re-entered, conform with my plan, with 1 contract that I already scaled, @1279.00, placing the exit for it @1281.00 for +2 points

- target hit on the break and I liquidated the other contract due to lots of responsive sellers at the new high @1281.75 (though I had no exit sign conform with my plan, I should have kept my stop in place and eventual place an exit @1282.25, for the reason that dVPOC shifted here; this is an issue I have to work on)

- I executed one trade with re-entry technique, sloppy final exit, for a total of +8.50 points

- this is my review for the first half of the day