jan 21 - prep

- ON inventory appears to be long, into the current BA, as well above rally high reference

- i'll be focusing on price acceptance above 1280.00, being aware that we have singles above from 1284.25 to 1291.50

- also we are trading in the upper half of the BA

- looks like we'll open gap up, a gap in the direction of the trend; i will monitor the attempt of the market to change the perceived value. I will go in the direction of the gap if its not filled fairly quick.

jan 20 - review

- as in stated in prep i was monitoring for price acceptance above/below rally high @1280.00 from yesterday

- we opened on current BAL and soon the price sliced through 1275.00 LVN, i was being aware of that scenario as well, as i mentioned in my yesterday review.

- as soon as price came below O i was looking for a short, tried 1275.00 but a second too late and didn't get filled than just entered 3 ticks below. My T1 was hit at +2.00 points, but than again i was expecting too much from it and the exit for the 2nd contract was poor. (This will be my next focus and my goal for improvement in weeks to come, as much depends on it).

- my next step was to just wait for the news to come out, didn't even check the results of it; but considering the location where we were traded (BAL) and the fact that that very important reference area @1275.00 (not even LVN but separation between 2 distant BA's) was breached I was looking to trade from the short side, for the first part of the day, or until the conditions are changing

- price coming below O, OF selling, CCI showing momentum to the downside, range bars creating a short setup, i jumped in (based on my previous trade i entered without patience and in this case i had to take some heat, 1 point, and as a result i had a 2 ticks worse entry than my plan, be aware that over time that adds up). However my trade was successful, of course with bad exit on 2nd contract.

- i had another short based on the higher odds of the IBL to be broken as the pressure was to the downside, OF selling, creating a divergence with price, which finally break. The tempo in the break wasn't too aggressive, thing that made me think about the move being limited

- slowed tempo at the lows, a very nice bottoming picture, with a divergence with price, making lower low, and OF flat (no aggressive sellers, or lots of responsive buyers absorbing), created a strong long setup@1268.75

- i think in the 2nd part of the day you have to really take in account dVPOC, as you have already indications about whats going on and what have been accomplished and what didn't; i'll work in detailing the tactics around it

- in this case, dVPOC shifted lower to 1270.00 stopping the move and offering S (it is a very strong signal when dVPOC shifts lower with price diverging with OFinto a bullish div), price climbed to 33EMA, dVPOC shifted higher to 1272.00 offering S for the move above midIB and the same area at 1275.00. dVPOC shifted higher offering S for the final push up to 1280.00, rally high. Value was dragged by price higher. All the way up all the elements aligned for supporting the continuation of the move: MP was one time-framing higher from I period through N; OF was buying, CCI turned to the upside, price climbed above EMA, nice range bars setups, not to mention location of where everything took place, decelerating tempo to the downside, that area between BA's.

- for tomorrow i'll monitor if we get acceptance below/above 1275.00; still believe its an important area

- i will apply BA tactics either way

jan 20 - prep

- ON inventory is looking to be short, so i'll be aware for a possible short covering rally (the market is not that weak as it appears to be ON); or if the market is weak it has to continue on its way down

- price went below 1275.00 ON, breaching the LVN

- ON R @1281.75 MVPOC

- ON S @1274.00 previous BAH

- POC@1282.25, not really migrating lower with price, monitoring for a possible short covering rally to it; if that happens apply specific tactics

- other R above:

VPOC@1283.00

MVPOC@1281.75

midBA@1283.50

VAH@1283.75

singles@1284.25 - 1291.75

- other S below:

NVPOC@1270.50

NPOC@1269.50

midBA@1266.50

- BA scenarios, with monitoring for either S @ current BAL holding or S @ BAH will be broken and price will go lower into previous BA

- fulcrum of the move will be 1280.00 rally high

jan 19 - review

- i had my first losing day since i started sim trading. Also i skipped my morning training today and woke up late (9.00 am). All in all i wasn't prepared, mentally in the first place, for a trading day, as i outlined in my plan. Possible feelings of guilt made me take bad decisions at critical points during the trading session.

- first thing: i will never say pass to my daily routine, as it is very important inn preparing me mentally and physically for the session (i am entering in competing mode, feeling confident, my mind is clearer and i am ready for action). If, for whatever reason, i will skip my routine i will not trade at all that day.

- as i mentioned in my prep, i was looking to apply the spike rules, monitoring for price acceptance below or above the spike, with the bottom of it @1290.75 acting as S/R

- ON activity was within the spike, however during the premarket price moved below S which turned into R

- selling pressure was on the O

- CCI was showing momentum to the downside

- price found rejection from 1290.75, strong R

- all this reasons should made me to look just for short opportunities (for some stupid reason i was biased long). The spike tactics, with price trading below it, was the best trading scenario today.

- you can see at 1,2,3 & 4 on the range chart, all of them were strong short signals:

a) - price was below spike

b) - price was below O

c) - price was below 33 EMA

d) - OF selling

e) - CCI was showing downside momentum

f) - red candles engulfing green ones, in downtrend and at strategic locations (bottom of the spike & VPOC; mid IB, IBL, MVPOC)

- in hindsight was an easy day, playing just the short side, from the open as the S was broken, but being so biased, i couldn't focus and lost 6 points in 2 trades, going long when i had no reason to do so.

- price got rejected from 1275.00, LVN, and missed to close the gap by a tick

- BA has a nice excess to the upside from 1295.00 to 1292.00

- i'll be aware of the extremes, as well as of the middle of it

- we had a shy rally high to 1280.00; i'll be monitoring tomorrow for price acceptance/rejection at this level; acceptance above change is occurring, acceptance below keeps the pressure to the downside

- we also had a poor low @1275.00 (suggesting that the rejection from LVN wasn't rejected right away, and was more of a softening balloon; and i'll expect for the price to just slice through it if pressure will be there, or at the next probe)

- tactical targets below are NPOC@1269.50 & NPOC@1264.00, so monitoring for price getting back inside of previous BA or S holding (provided by the previous BAH and current BAL)

jan 19 - prep

- late in the day we had a spike in Q and R periods, with the low at 1290.75, I will apply the spike rules and tactics

- focus on 2 days BA extremes below

- ON found acceptance within the spike

jan 18 - review

- we opened on VPOC from friday, into the second distribution of Friday (treat that as an individual day), based on that, my initial S and R were the extremes of that small distribution. On the range chart with OF i saw first rejection from initial R at tha candle finished at 9.41, red on positive delta; so i calibrated my cross hair and when the following candle closed down, i placed my order at 1289.00 with T1@1287.00 and T2 trailing

- now, i should have exited around 1287.00 as i saw that initial S holding (overlapping bars; lower delta but not price = bullish divergence) but i didn't and i exited at +1 @ 1288.00

- than, because that initial S holding, OF turned to buy, price moved above Open, i entered long @1288.25, 33EMA, had in mind quick exit if bar closing below open and below EMA with T1@1290.25. For T2 i expected RE up, and still didn't exited when OF turned to selling. I moved my stop at 1287.50, below open but too close to price action; i should use strategic location for the stop, like placing it below S area @1286.00 (still between my initial stop guidelines)

- still believe in the upper move as initial, and critical S held and we moved back up above Open, closing above EMA still could be just a balancing day and have to work on my exits for 2nd contract

- this was my first part of the day, a gain of +4.25 points in 2 trades

- for the second half of the day, we can see price moving higher, after the attempt to auction lower price got rejected from Friday's VPOC@1287.75, showing us that S moved higher (critical piece of information), coupled with location of the trading range (top of Friday's range), OF turning to buy, the odds were high that a RE to the upside could be the most probable thing to happen.

- based on my trading plan, it offered a long entry location @1288.50 and plenty of occasions off dVPOC@1290.00, which held as S (S moved higher, the same critical piece of information)

- from the MP chart we can see that we were one time-framing higher whole day except in P period, when an attempt to stop the one time-framing higher was not followed by follow through and immediately after the break to the upside occurred. I think thats another very important piece of information, of something attempting to happen, that doesn't happen and offers possibilities in the opposite direction. (will be part of my arsenal, and act without hesitation next time when that happens, i'll document it as a setup)

jan 17 & 18 - prep

- friday we had an uptrend day, with price extending the trading range from the bottom of the 2 days BA to 1290.00

- the profile was elongated showing trade facilitation

- ON extended the range to the upside, and inventory is looking to be short???

- initial S area: 1284.25-1283.50 top of the 2 day BA

- S1@1281.75 VPOC of the BA

- S2@1276.00 bottom of the BA

- we have the gap below 1276.00-1274.50 with LVN@1275.00

- initial R@1186.75

- R1@1288.25 POC

- R2@1290.00

- the upper distribution from friday will be treated as a separate day; i will monitor for price acceptance below the low of it or above

- BA scenarios applies, with monitoring price acceptance/rejection and setups around BAH and initial R, for an initial area to sell with destination trade the other BA extreme

- or acceptance of price at BAH and possible move up, with long around BAH and destination trade ONH@1291.50

week 1 - review

jan 14 - review

jan 13 - review

- I was following my plan, bu monitoring the pullback low@1279.00. My plan was to go long there if it holds. It held, and the presence of the responsive buyers was evident

- on my execution chart you can see the candle at the low engulfing the down candle, OF turning to buy; then signs of continuation were present through one time-framing higher in z, A, B & C periods. I went long at the close of the bar, with stop strategically below (even if given by my trade location, anyway i wouldn't wait until my stop would have been hit, because that means that one time-framing higher was stopping and i should have exited 1278.00)

- i tried to use a bigger first scale +2.50 points, I deviated from my original plan and i really felt the pressure of doing that, it wasn't relaxed at all.

- as a rule from now on i'll use the first scale at +2.00 and only if there is strong conviction off the open i'll use strategic levels for the first scale, bigger than +2.00 points

- my first scale was hit and then i exited the 2nd contract based on the price action deteriorating at IBH. Also to note that the tempo going higher in this move was slow, thing that should alert me about smaller targets (i should have chose IBH@1282.75 as the exit). The trade was profitable for +5.50 points.

- one time-framing higher stopped in D period, thing that should alert me that change has occurred or is about to occur. Based on this the MP chart offered an entry setup@1281.50; also validated by the range bars (rejection at IBH; red candle engulfing the up one, OF selling, price back below O). Confidence in the trade would be provided by continuation to downside under the form of one time - lower.

- RE to the downside occurred, and again the same setup at the lows (green bar engulfing red bar with OF turning to buy) occurred offering the possibility for a long

- for now i will be focusing on determining the context and trading in the first part of the day. Second setup and important piece of information I will add to my arsenal is monitoring change exhibited through one time-framing stopping, as a trade location and enter trades only if validated by OF selling and range bars setups!!!

- as for tomorrow:

- we had an inside day (a form of balance);

- bottom of the trading range@1276.25 held as S (it is an important level to monitor for the existing gap) w

- we have a poor high at 1283.00

- i will monitor if the move down was just an intra-day inventory adjustment or a sign of weakening

- BA tactics applies

- further info provided by ON action

jan 13 - prep

- as stated yesterday the important reference for today is pullback low@1279.00; acceptance above/below this price could give the direction for the day, the validity of the yesterday breakout

- ON inventory being kind of neutral, and within initial S formed by the pullback low and the spike low

- I will apply the spike tactics and use the pullback low as a guide line for the day

- above I have the ONH@1284.50

- below I'll be aware of the gap, which should offer S, or it will be filled and the previous BAH would be S

jan 12 - review

- ON inventory was long; things that could happen are:

1. either market is strong and continues on its way up, taking the form of a short covering rally or developing into a trending day

2. market is weak and an adjustment of inventory takes place under the form of a long liquidation break

- today open was out of balance but there was a slight lack of confidence. However, the auction down in its attempt to close the gap had a slow tempo, and was met by strong bids, responsive buyers and after the price climbed back up above the open it didn't look back. The tempo to the upside was accelerated, probably by short covering rally of those who were short in the hole, expecting for the gap to be closed

- the shape of the profile was suggesting a short covering rally with an afternoon pullback (usually one afternoon inventory adjustment). The low of the pullback @1279.00 will be an important reference for tomorrow; the pullback low is used to determine if there has been any meaningful change relative to the previous day, if the pullback low is not violated, there has not been any meaningful change in the opposite direction of the prior days trend. Price acceptance above this level signifies pressure to the upside; price acceptance below signifies pressure to the downside

- also there was a spike in J and K period, spike tactics will be applied as well; reinforcing the pullback low with the spike low ... to analyze further after ON activity

- market started one time-framing higher, signs of continuation in the direction of the ON inventory. I have to monitor for signs of one time-framing stopping, which means that change has occurred or is about to occur

- today market stopped one time-framing in E period, which took with 2 ticks the low of D. I should have been aware that change is about to occur

- market developed a small BA in F, G & H period and a break out of that BA occurred in I period, however the tempo wasn't strong to the downside (probably just an intra-day inventory adjustment) and the move was stopped above the O (bullish sign); the former VPOC@1279.00 served as S and as low of the pullback.

- entry signal was valid on the OF, too, which found S offering visually strategic trade location at IBH with clear targets to the upside: dVPOC@1282.25 and HOD (also 33EMA offered S in the pullback). Tempo accelerated to the upside, confirming the bullish sentiment


- open out of balance to the upside, with gap up; according to my market prep, I was monitoring the gap fill or the failure of filling it. We had an open auction type, low confidence, and price went to test lower in an attempt to fill the gap. The sellers weren't able to push prices lower and were met by responsive buyers, also they weren't too aggressive, therefore they failed to close the gap!!! confirming my view and hypothesis for the gap of being valid

- based on these observations and on my trading plan from pre-market, I decided to trade just from the long side as long as we maintain above 1273.75.

- first rejection from 1276.00 (see the DD from ON) and the presence of responsive buyers, seen on the price ladder, OF turning to buy and failure to fill the gap triggered a long entry conform with my plan@1277.25 - 2 contracts - T1@1279.25 and trailing the 2nd contract (as I envisioned an up day with higher odds of RE to the upside); initial stop@1274.75 (inside the ON S area)

- also the market came down to 33EMA, which held as a good S; if the price would have closed below the 33EMA, I would have got out from my long

- 1277.25 turned into dVPOC, fact that reinforced my confidence in trade

- first scale was hit @ 1279.25 for +2.00 points

- IBH was set and dVPOC shifted to 1279.00, market showed signs of continuation (one-timeframing higher; VA acceptance at new range, OF buying). For this reasons I re-entered, conform with my plan, with 1 contract that I already scaled, @1279.00, placing the exit for it @1281.00 for +2 points

- target hit on the break and I liquidated the other contract due to lots of responsive sellers at the new high @1281.75 (though I had no exit sign conform with my plan, I should have kept my stop in place and eventual place an exit @1282.25, for the reason that dVPOC shifted here; this is an issue I have to work on)

- I executed one trade with re-entry technique, sloppy final exit, for a total of +8.50 points

- this is my review for the first half of the day

jan 12 - prep

- yesterday balanced in the upper half of the BA, finding S at midBA

- VA built higher

- ON price moved out of the range, into a DD with a high@1280.25

- initial S@1273.75- BAH and singles between ON DD

- looks like we'll open gap up, I'll focus on any pullback for to see if it finds acceptance back in the range

- ON inventory is long, I have to monitor for the market response to this situation: a strong market should proceed upward, a weak one calls for an inventory adjustment

- rule/tactic for trading gaps: - go in the direction of any gap that isn't filled fairly quick

- for trading the gap apply the spike rules; once in a position monitor for continuation; continuation is monitored by profile elongation, value area development, one time-framing

jan 11 - review

- after opening out of balance and out of range (but the open was low confidence) price made its first attempt to close the gap, with a first rejection from initial R@1272.50 (BAH and double prints and selling tail from Jan 7th). The move stopped at initial S@1269.00 (rally high from jan 7th and ON S)

- i went short @1270.75 (based on my plan and entry criteria, OF selling, rejection from R) in an attempt to break the initial S. T1@+2 points was hit and the 2nd contract was exited due to rejection from S and OF buying at +0.75 points

- the price got rejected from initial S and moving towards IBH, OF started to buy, and i went long @1270.75. I went too soon long and at a worse price that i should, but it was according to my plan and i could placed my stop accordingly and below initial S, OF buying gave me confidence. My T1@+2 points was hit and I exited the 2nd contract based on price rejection above IBH and OF selling, a bit too quick, due to loss of focus, for +1 point.

- after that I've lost my focus completely and shifted my attention from trading and didn't take anymore trades

- price was struggling at IBH and BAH , creating a divergence with OF selling and finally broke to the downside to IBL, bounced to midIB and from there sold off to VPOC@1265.75

- we can see a rejection from that level back to 1269.00 rally high and price being accepted and closing above that level.

jan 11 - prep

- friday we had a rally high @1269.00, after a sell off from the top of the BA (acceptance below signifies pressure to the downside; acceptance above signifies the rally has been validated and higher prices could be seen)

- yesterday we opened below rally high, but after a poor low at the bottom of the BA we manage to climb up to friday's VPOC which acted as R, in a balanced day

- carry forward: poor high; poor low

- ON built acceptance above midBA and went all the way up to BAH, shaped as a DD

- BA scenarios applies;

- monitoring OF for buying (continuation with initiative buyers) and breaking out of BA@1172.50. Levels to get long for a valid break: 1268.75 as separation between ONDD; 1267.00-1265.75 ONPOC & VPOC; 1265.25 midBA; 1264.00 POC

- monitoring OF for failure to BAH and return to the opposite extreme; sell levels: 1174.50-1172.50, with monitoring for breaking levels below and price acceptance at lower levels

- monitoring OF for the scenario when price just looks above BA and fails

Jan 07 review

- notice how price first got rejected from the BAH (bearish sign), down to yesterday VPOC.

- rejected from VPOC up to the O, OF formed a small subtle divergence at the high, the presence of responsive sellers was seen by VPOC forming @1271.75 stalled and sold off through the VPOC and IBL all the way down to the BAL

- basically this is the only information that you need to capitalize on

- the important thing to notice is trading between them levels, broke some of them (make an opinion & trading tactic based on that); held some of them (make an opinion & tactic based on that)

- after an open with low conviction, inside range and balance, price got rejected pretty quick from BAH@1273.75 and went to set the IBL

- 2nd attempt to break the highs was stopped at the OPEN and failure to being accepted above that level generated a sale off which continued until now, 1:00 PM. The sell off went to the opposite extreme of the BA

- after a few bars struggling to break from IBL the break occurred with RE to the downside. My plan calls for trades in the direction of the RE

- I am still not flexible enough to change my bias, even after strong evidences listed above (rejection from BAH, rejection from OPEN, trading below midIB, break from IBL). Not to mention the observation of responsive sellers at the OPEN level on the price ladder

- the importance of trade location and an objective and unbiased view of the market

Jan 07 market prep

- yesterday close in the middle of the range , i would say on a positive note, being yesterday range location inside the new BA (upper middle)

- VA was overlapping with previous day VA, even if we had a liquidation break quick in the day we were balancing for the rest of the day above a pretty clear S area

- ON activity was contained within the same range as yesterday

- my plan for today is to trade the BA 1266.00-1273.75 within the bigger BA 1273.75-1258.25; meaning I'll apply the BA rules:

- for a rotational type of day i'll play rotations from one extreme to the other of the smaller BA with monitoring the extremes for possible breakout or false beaks and with destination trade the opposite extreme

- 1258.25 its an important level to watch, being the limit for entering in the previous BA; acceptance below will be bearish and rejection from this level will be bullish

jan 06 review

- we open on the VAH in range in the upper part of it

- the open lacked confidence, so no trades should be placed until new information comes in

- we had a small BA defined by the top of previous day distribution

- my trading plan was to wait for the market to give more info and apply the BA rules for that small BA

- we had RE to the upside, failed, no follow through and got rejected back into the IB and BA; at which point I went short with T1@2 points and T2 trailed to S provided by the singles; a liquidation break

- we had RE to the downside but the selling dried off around the S provided by the singles from yesterday. Also the move down stopped at the middle of the 3 trading range

- 1268.00 became the VPOC and offered S for a move back to mid IB

Jan 06 market prep

- ON activity found S above the singles from yesterday and extended the range to the upside

- I will be monitoring for price acceptance/rejection above 1273.75

- if price is rejected back into the range, I'll be aware of the initial S area 1267.25- 1269.25

- S1@1265.00 the POC of the BA

- S2@1262.75 VAL of the BA and top of the buying tail

- strong S@1258.25 top of the previous BA

- to the upside my first reference is ONH@1277.00

- looks like the open will be inside range at the upper end

January 05 - market prep & review

- we were trading in a balance area between 1245.75 - 1258.50 for 8 days (21 dec - 31 dec)

- on January 03 we opened gap up, above BA

- on Jan 04 they tried to fill the gap, but they failed by few ticks, creating a bullish sentiment and confirming that BAH@1258.50 is a strong S for now, also a level to watch for any move back into that previous BA and eventually lower

- even if on Jan 04 the value was created lower, was accepted above BA; by combining the 03 and 04 profiles we have a new VA and a new trading range

- ON action on January 05 find S on the same BAH, and aided by some positive econ news developed in an up day, extending the newly trading range to the upside, making new highs for the year.

- we can see how in premarket we traded between 1257.75 and 1262.50 (2 POC's from ON activity); it formed a small BA in A, B & C and then the price took off from that BA, classic application of the BA rules

- open in range and VAL (suggesting that if we don't trade quick out of yesterday's range and build acceptance lower, the odds are that we'll trade to the opposite end on that range, and thats what happened)

- VA of the composite profiles of previous BA held as a S with POC@1252.75 (important level as S)

- we are trading in a new trading range, BA between 1258.25-1273.75; the BA rules applies

- today it formed a P shape, suggesting short covering rally?? or new buyers coming in?? we'll see in the days to come...

- VA migrated higher on the day profile and on the 3 days BA

- from todays profile:

- singles between 1267.25-1269.25 as S area, with 1267.25 as S with odds of responsive buyers being present (LVN)

- POC & VPOC migrated higher with price

- we have a shy selling tail at the top and buying tail at the bottom

- we have a NPOC@1254.00 from 12.31

- for tomorrow I'll apply the BA rules, but I have to gather more info from the ON action and an trading plan will be outlined in the morning