- in hindsight fairly easy day to trade, even if it was a low volume day without any econ news to affect the price- we can see from the O/N profile a kind of balanced area with a O/N POC@1144.25, from which level the ES started to sell all the way down to IBL and making its first RE down to 1138.50
- the best trade, based on O/N profile and context was short the POC, which was in the proximity of VAH from Friday with a target at VAL, trade worth +4 points
- the second trade was long at IBL based on divergence in price and order flow (see the first short blue lines); price was moving down, but the selling volume didn't follow through. Due to lack of volume trade should be exited at midIB when price showed us that we are trading in a congestion area, seen through the range bars overlapping and EMA's horizontal and close to each other (the price was stopped at 1143.00 the VPOC from Friday)
- 3rd trade was long from IBL, based on a lengthy divergence building on (1.30 hours) at the lows of the day; price was trying to make new lows but order flow was buying, showing us that the move down is limited, for now. After that price went straight up to test the IBH and made us neutral for the day with RE to the upside
- in theory, after a neutral day is established price tend to move towards the middle of the range. The above happened indeed, and even more, the sellers took control of the market and order flow started to sell making further RE to the downside and closing at the lows of the day
-notes for the future:
- when the order flow is selling at the high of the range or the move, go with it, don't try to find counter entries
- when there is divergence in price and order flow at the lows of the range (price moving lower, or price just chopping without direction) and order flow moving higher, thats a clear indication that the move to the downside its limited and the next logical move is up
- have to study further down candles on positive delta at the high and up candles on negative delta at the lows, when rejection is made and price turns around, like today at the high made in RE
- always be aware how the VPOC from previous day and from actual day affects the price action during the day
- at the bottom of the profile, in G & H periods there were double prints which is a powerful indication that the market could return to that level (I missed that from my sight)
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