28.09.2010 market review

- going into today RTH i had a bullish bias, based on the ON profile which looked like a balanced area with a rejection from below, price even got rejected from 1132.50 WPOC, with B & C making HH, with a ledge at 1137.25, and trading around & above 1140.25 which was R/S for a few days now.

- also the past 2 trading days formed a balanced area, and open and trading around VAL from yesterday and from that balanced area, my vision was positive and was thinking we'll take out the highs of the range, and my initial plan was to buy VAL for a move to VAH.

- as soon as we opened ES started to sell and i saw the order flow selling, my vision has changed and i just sat on my hands. I wasn't quick enough to realize the short opportunity, reinforced by the fact that price hit the double prints & singles from Friday and went all the way down to NPOC@1128.50 and was rejected from LVN between 1125.50-1128.25 (previously identified and marked on my charts, its a V shape LVN on MP and VP charts)
- seeing price rejected from that area, validating the theory behind LVN, and seeing a range bar positive but on negative delta (sellers trying to push price lower but were absorbed by responsive buyers), that was my second heads up

- the VPOC shifted from 1133.25 down to 1128.75, that was my third heads up and confirmed that the bottom might be in place, the move down looked like limited, the order flow was buying sellers tried to push lower but looking inside the bar I could see they were absorbed by buyers, and I waited to see if the candle is closing up which triggered my entry

- due to volatility and huge IB, i chose my T1=1132.50=WPOC and my T2=1137.00=bottom of the balance area from ON. I had more confidence in holding for my T2 as VPOC moved higher @ 1133.25 again, and price found support there for the next move up

- i was happy with the trade, very relaxed as all the things lined up, followed my plan, managed the trade at the close of each bar, didn't get upset for not holding for higher target (i identified 1136.00 as a re-entry setup, were all my things were lined up, but i preferred to lower my risk, and gain more confidence in my methodology first):

2L@1129.25 > T1@1132.50 (+3.25) > T2@1137.00 (+7.75) = 11 points

- price continued higher, making RE to the upside, building acceptance in the ON balance area and in VA from yesterday, balancing in the same range.

- price made double prints at the top of the profile, in theory its an indication that business at that level is unfinished and there is a high probability for the price to revisit that level either in the same session or in the near future; so i kept that in mind.

- price came down to dVA and balance area from ON and from today. The order flow was selling, but not too aggressive, price kept making LL but order flow started to build a divergence. I took a look inside the bars and saw sellers being absorbed around 1137.25=S=dVAL=bottom of balance area and i chose that level for my long. I entered 1 bar sooner but i preferred to get at that price, aggressive, knowing that I might be too soon in it and use i tighter stop than usual.

- theory: if we have RE we can use dVA for entering trades in the direction of RE

- i had my T@1143.50 the high with double prints; price started to move in my direction, order flow started to turn up from flat, and as soon as i had the first 2 bars in my favor i moved my stop at BE, managing the trade according to my plan until T was hit

1L@1137.25 > T@1143.50 (+6.25) = 6.25 points

- today trading results: +17.25 points

- that was my trading day, i can say my first good trading day, my first trading day with my first trading plan finished

- what i did good? I identified levels from MP and VP, i identified the balance area (from RTH and from ON). I was flexible and open to new information after the open. I was patient for the news to come out and for the price to find a bottom. I observed the changes in order flow at my entry locations. I executed the trades and managed them according to my plan. I was happy with the results and with the fact that i followed my plan with confidence and without second guessing it.

- now i have to build upon these positive aspects of my trading to be able to duplicate the results day after day, to print them in my "muscle memory" so i can capitalize on opportunities presented in the market