calm confidence in unpredictable 30/04

- notes from my trading journal 29/04: - going into today session based on yesterday context my bias was positive/neutral; after analyzing the O/N session my bias was reinforced. The profile showed signs of strength from euro session, under the form of a double distribution with subsequent RE to the upside.

- price opened out of balance, above range and VA with gap up, on the first and the only attempt to auction down through the opening swing price got rejected and went to set the IBH. I saw this as another bullish sign, and judging by the whole context i preferred to look for longs as the safest trades to be taken. We got our first RE in the 3rd period, another sign of strength. All day price found acceptance above IB and built value there, inside of a HVN (see weekly & monthly vol profile chart below). We did see signs of going out of steam in M & N periods, when the RE was made only by 1 tick, fact that took me out of one of my longs for which i had a bigger target.

- another fact worth mentioning, like i was saying yesterday it'll be interesting to watch, is that price traded through singles area easily, sellers weren't there to defend it, not jumping to any conclusion, just observing

- VA was built in the upper part of the profile, close was in value at the top of the range, positive/neutral bias, don't forget about the O/N session, mirage effect, and most important be flexible and dynamic.

S/R levels from monthly vol profile

S/R levels from weekly vol profile

- key areas/levels for 30/04:

1. initial S@1201.50 VAL & top of the LVN on weekly vol profile chart
2. S1@1195.75 LVN acted pretty interesting so far, see monthly vol profile
3. we have the unfilled gap below 1195.50-1192.25, could act as a strong S (if still defended by buyers) or like a magnet, area to observe
4. WPOC@1187.75
5. NPOC@1186.25 from 28/04
6. strong S@1182.75 monthly VPOC
7. initial R@1205.75 VAH
8. R1@1207.75 LVN
9. R2@1210.50 LVN
10. NPOC@1212.50 from 26/04

- on the weekly structure Thursday is merged, we have a bearish IB, didn't had any RE, yet

- we have selling singles 1207.25-1206.75 which can act as R, almost same area as R1

calm confidence in unpredictable 29/04

- notes from my trading journal 28/04: - going into today session, based on yesterday big sell off and close near the lows, my bias was negative to neutral; but O/N and premarket profile changed my bias to neutral/positive. Premarket activity showed strength with buyers making subsequent RE to the upside and developing a new distribution. The open was above monthly VPOC@1182.75; also we opened gap up (invisible buying tail). After 2 attempts from sellers to offer the price below monthly VPOC, we had rejection from IBL all the way up to IBH. The news about Spain came out and was the only thing driving price below IBL and below monthly VPOC. The rejection was violent and immediate, reinforcing my positive bias, which made me think about a long (long@1181.75 IBL-exit@1186.50; long@1186.25-exit@1190.50)

- VA was built in the upper part of the profile, close was above VA at the top of the structure, theory a positive/neutral bias (of course need to analyze the Globex session, be flexible, don't forget about the mirage effect)

- dVPOC played again a very important role through out the day, adding confidence in keeping trades to get to my targets. I think it's very important to monitor dVPOC, as it can give you either entry/exit location or can contribute to your confidence if you're in a trade; it behaves differently in a range market than in a trending one.

S/R levels from monthly volume profile

S/R levels from weekly profile

- key areas/levels for 29/04:

1. initial S@1185.00, LVN
2. S1@1182.75 monthly VPOC
3. S3@1177.50 LVN
4. NPOC@1166.00 from 31/03
5. initial R@1192.25 LVN
6. R area 1195.00-1201.00 LVN, singles from 27/04, strong presence of OTF sellers (it will be interesting to observe how price will behave if we trade through this area: it'll pass, it'll be rejected or it'll fill it)

- on the weekly structure, Wednesday is merged, the IB is bearish, we didn't had any RE, yet

- WPOC@1187.75, could act as S level

- WVA is too wide to be taken into consideration

- based on O/N activity i'll gauge how can i use yesterday's VA in my trading plan for tomorrow

- 8:30 unemployment claims, expected better

calm confidence in unpredictable 28/04

- notes from my trading journal 27/04: - we had a big sell off day, with a 30 points range.

MP theory and my interpretation of it regarding today:

- yesterday we had a low volume day, with value building higher but with a late day sell off and a close at the lows of the day, below VA, which, conform with MP theory, is giving us a neutral to negative bias for the next day

- on the low of yesterday profile we had double TPO's, theory about them came true today

- O/N profile had the shape of a double distribution, with lower distribution formed in Europe session and US premarket, which reinforced the negative bias

- open below value and range with gap down, in theory gap represents an invisible selling tail in today's case, presence of OTF sellers

- after the IB was set, price tried to auction higher above the IBH, but after they closed the gap, sellers (which i had a clue about them) entered the market and offered the price aggressively all the way down to the proximity of monthly VPOC@1182.75

- after touching 1183.50 price bounced and formed a lower distribution, where dVPOC, the dynamic part of the profile, played a nice key role. The rest is history...

- as about me and MP, i think i'm at a point when i have to take the chance, embrace the risk, get out of my comfort zone, take the theory I've learn so far and apply it to real trading situations, see where it takes me. Looking and analyzing the market through MP it surely changed my view and my understanding about trading as an auction process. I don't get surprised that often by a dramatic and sudden move in price. Rather I get surprised by things happening exactly how i expect to happen based on my MP analysis and interpretation.

- most of all i have to accept losses as part of the game, not to be afraid of them. I have to focus on consistency & patience to execute my plan with a clear and open mind, being flexible and dynamic, maintaining a cool, calm and relaxed attitude, with the sole purpose of trading to win.

weekly vol profile

monthly volume profile

- key areas/levels for 28/04:

1. initial S@1177.50, LOD and LVN
2. S1@1171.75 LVN
3. S2@1169.25
4. NPOC@1166.00 from 31/03, as a possible target
5. initial R@1182.75 monthly VPOC
6. R1@1189.00-1190.50, yesterday's VPOC
7. R2@1195.00 selling singles, LVN on daily, weekly, monthly profiles
8. R3@1203.00 WVPOC

- Monday and Tuesday sessions are merged together, we have an extremely bearish IB for the week, with a 39.00 points range

- WPOC@1212.50

- selling singles 1207.25-1206.75 expect to act as R at least at first touch

- selling singles 1201.00-1195.00 big R area, dominated by sellers Tuesday

- VA too wide to be taken in consideration

calm confidence in unpredictable 27/04

- notes from my trading journal 26/04: - after opening above VA, confirming the Friday's close, after the IB was set making new highs (just 1 tick above O/N high, some kind of failed auction), price auctioned and built value inside the IB, finding acceptance at these levels and building up HVN. It was a day range with low volume and eventually in the last 3 time periods we got further RE to the downside, into previous day's VA, touching the POC@1207.75 and closing at the day's lows, below VA.

- imo there were 3 trades to be taken after the IB was set. 1st: long from IBL exit at IBH; 2nd: short IBH exit IBL; 3rd: short dVPOC@1213.25 exit POC@1207.75. I chose not to trade today, due to narrow range and bad experiences with this type of range, i preffered to observe and take notes.

19-26/04 vol profile, newly built HVN at the top

- key areas/levels for 27/04:

1. initial R@1210.50 LVN
2. R1@1213.00 VPOC of the new HVN
3. R3@1216.75 HOY
4. i expect VA to act as a R area, but i'll validate this possibility after analyzing the O/N session
5. levels of S below remain the same as identified yesterday

- always double check the S/R levels with 20 days composite vol profile chart

- note about yesterday's profile: at the bottom of the structure we have double TPO's, remember the theory about high probability for price to revisit that area.

- note at 10:00 CB consumer confidence and Bernanke? could the missing catalyst from today.

calm confidence in unpredictable 26/04

- notes from my trading journal 23/04: - after open right above VA, in range, price auction up, making a quick rejection of VAH, setting the IBH. After that a rotation back to IBL and VAH took place in 3 time periods, ending with another VA rejection. Volume was building up inside the IB, with dVPOC@1203.50, creating the S for the move up. Sellers weren't present aggressive through out the day and price started to get acceptance above 1203.75 which is the WVPOC, moving slowly to new highs, creating RE in 3 subsequent time periods, in the last 2 hours of trading.

- VA moved higher, but in the lower part of the profile, close near the highs above VA

- i entered long@1203.50 for the reasons described above, but due to some external factors i closed my position @1206.50 for a gain of +3.00 points.

16-23/04 weekly volume profile chart for determining S/R levels;

use the monthly volume profile as well

- key areas/levels for 26/04:

from volume profile w & m

1. initial R@1213.00, a HVN developing at these new highs
2. R2@1217.00-1218.00 from pivot farm
3. R3@1125.00-1126.00 from pivot farm
4. initial S@1210.25, on the weekly vol profile it's LVN between new highs and HVN below (acceptance area)
5. we should have fairly strong S between 1206.25-1198.00, HVN with WVPOC@1203.75; imo we need acceptance above this level in order to move higher and to validate the uptrend
6. 1198.00-1195.00 LVN area, rejection area, which i expect to hold as a strong S, on the other hand if price will pass through it i'll know that conditions have changed
7. other areas of S: 1193.50, 1189.00 as VPOCs of the HVN below
8. strong S line, which is also my bull/bear line in the sand is 1182.75, VPOC of the monthly vol profile

from MP

1. S1@1209.25 VAH
2. S2@1207.75 POC; these 2 levels are just above HVN described above at point 5.
3. S3@1202.50 VAL, below WVPOC@1203.75
4. NPOC@1193.75 from 22/04, coincides with HVN VPOC and WPOC
5. NPOC@1166.00 from 31/03

- analyze Globex session, change the levels if necessary and finalize the plan after. Remember, strong O/N profile formation might give some important clues for the morning session.

Friday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 22/04: - open with a sharp gap down, below VA, range, with a strong bearish sentiment from O/N session, based on some news about Greece. However, ES opened below 1195.50 which is an important S/R area, determined by a LVN, price start to auction down, set the IBL as the LOD. After the IB was set price tried to auction down but failed and found S@1193.50, which on my 10 days volume composite profile is the VPOC, as well as today's VPOC, this level offered the support for the big move up which followed. Initiative buyers stepped in, broke the IBH and drove price into previous VA and above.

- in hindsight pretty easy day. I would say it really was an easy day, not for me tho, i lost -2.00 points in 2 trades, and that just because i wasn't able to accept the obvious. If you take a look at the 5 min chart with the levels on it you can see clearly that a break from IB was due, price went to VAL, paused, made it's way up to POC, paused & retraced a bit, went up to VAH, paused ... All these setups are part of my trading plan, but i took none of them.

- for some reason this week have been a loosing one for me, i noticed some imbalance in my thought process, inconsistency in discipline, in executing my plan, in patience. I knew something is wrong, i did nothing, i kept trading and i lost. The most important thing now is to learn from these mistakes and not to repeat them. I'll work over the weekend at refining my trading plan and from next week i'll focus just on consistency.

- key areas/levels from the structure:

1. 1186.25-1188.00 buying tail, area defended by buyers, this is also a HVN 1186.25-1191.00, so i'm expecting this area to work as a strong S until turns in R
2. 1193.50=VPOC, 1193.75=POC, area of S
3. 1195.50-1197.75 buying singles (initiating buyers with strong conviction), also the area coincide with LVN (rejection area), i expect this area to be defended by buyers, at least at first touch, acting as S
4. 1202.25-1203.75 will be my initial area of R, also a HVN
5. R1@1210.50 HOY

Thursday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 21/04: - open just above VA, attempt to auction higher, touched the NPOC@1207.50 and returned to auction down into VA. After the IB was set, there could be seen some weakness, price trading in the lower area of the IB and even breaking it very early in the session. The big drop in the second part of the day went right down to the single prints from Monday, 19/04, and got rejected, like expected, buyers stepped in and drove price back to 1203.00, in previous day VA.

- i was totally out of sync with the market today, low focus and frustration made it's work, i did only mistakes and i lost -4.00 points. Looking back at today, there were pretty easy trades, all falling under my setups and trading plan, unfortunately i didn't follow my plan. 2 short trades at the IBL, and long from the low of the day, based on the OTF buyer still present, defending that level. Yesterday was a bad day for me, as well, so i have to pull myself together and stay focused, stick with my plan and not chasing green horses on the walls.

- key areas/levels from the structure:

1. strong R area 1207.00-1209.50
2. R 1201.50-1204.00; HVN, this area is formed by 2 days VA's overlapping, so a big balance area, I'm expecting this to hold as strong R as we break below it/or S if we move above
3. 1195.50-1194.75 LVN, still an area defended buy buyers, heavily tested today, i would say is my initial S
4. 1191.00-1187.00, HVN, area of S
5. 1183.75-1181.50, this is the low extreme area defended by buyers Monday, price rejection, buying tail@1179.75-1180.75

- i'll analyze the O/N, adjust my levels, and i'll continue with scenarios after i'll redefine my trading plan and strategy

Wednesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 20/04: - strength from O/N session, open above VA, POC & range; showing acceptance at prices above, buyers in clear control, no aggressive sellers. Any attempt to auction back into VA was rejected, price found acceptance above IB and traded for almost all day there. We had RE up in 3 periods, last time period RE & closing near the highs showing us the strength an determination of buyers.

- VVA was built at the high of the profile.Few trading opportunities, IMO the best location was long from 1198.75, which was the singles area in double distributions from O/N profile, entry after price probe down and rejected from VA. I was too conservative and wait for price to test 1196.00.

- obs. on low volume area: - we can see from volume profile chart that 1195.50-1197.50 is an LVN, on MP chart the area is marked by buying singles from Monday 19/04, so we knew that OTF buyers drove prices through that area. Theory: low volume areas represents OTF conviction, rejection area; the key in taking advantage of LVN is to place trades in front of that area, for the OTF should reject any auction attempts near the LVN. Which is exactly what happened at the lows of today. (this made me think I'm not doing my work preparation well enough, in identifying key areas)

- key areas/levels from the structure:

1. 1194.75-1197.00 LVN with OTF buyers defending this level, should hold as a strong S. If we turn around and trade through it & price finds acceptance below, the conditions have changed, buyers not interested in defending this area.
2. 1202.25-1203.75 HVN, acceptance found in this area, VPOC@1203.75, should act as a strong S
3. 1205.25-1205.75 buying singles made in last time period
4. 1207.50 is NPOC from 15/04
5. HOY@1210.50 is R1
6. 1217.00-1218.00 R2 from pivot farm

- scenarios: - strength from Asia & Europe session, manage to keep price above and inside VA

- if we don't auction below 1194.75-1197.00 LVN, my plan is to buy any pullback to VAL, POC with initial target O/N H@1209.50 and extended target above HOY

- if we trade through the LVN and find acceptance below, I know the conditions have changed and I'll try to go short at POC, VAL, LVN area, with tragets below such as NPOC and S

Tuesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 19/04: - first, I want to mention that part of my scenario worked out very good, I took advantage of it just partially.

- open just below VAL, started to auction up to 1193.25=WPOC and R from Friday, got rejected right away from that level and start auctioning to test the levels below, pausing at each logical level: POC, IBL, VAL, finally took out the ONL. Price tried to build value below Friday's VA, but failed and initiative buyers stepped in and drove price back into previous day's VA and right to the VAH by making us neutral for the day with RE up. Strong finish, with close near the highs, VA overlapping previous VA, rising POC, elongated profile (sign that trade is facilitated at these levels). VVA moved at the top of the profile, confirming buyers control.

- bottom line is that important levels seems to work great, I think it's important to weight them by their importance and use them accordingly. (short from 1193.00 area was a pretty sure trade being the huge R that served Friday, WPOC, newly IBH)

- obs. on volume building up to the bottom of the range: - we can see huge volume traded between 1183.25-1182.00, at the bottom of the range, after the low of the day was set. Theory: if volume starts to build at the bottom/top of the range, price needs to auction lower/higher to shut off the activity, in order to move back up/down. This is what happened today (Friday, too), after failing in several times to auction back into VA, went quick down, after that went straight up, "piercing and going all the way through the balloon".

- key levels/areas from the structure:

1. buying tail 1180.75-1179.75, area defended by buyers, should act as S
2. VAL@1183.00 coincide with previous week's WPOC, also HVN, should act as strong S
3. POC@1187.75, HVN should act as S
4. VAH@1192.25, VPOC@1191.00, WPOC@1193.25 & R turned S, depending on ON activity this area should play an key role in tomorrow's action
5. from Friday's profile we have selling singles 1199.75-1198.00, this area should act as initial R, area to watch if we trade here
6. WVAH@1202.25 should act as R
7. double TPO's@1206.00 top of Friday's range
8. NPOC@1207.50 from 15/04

- don't forget to check volume profile chart for further S/R levels

- scenarios: - strength from yesterday went in to O/N session, profile looking like a double distribution up trend day, with singles between 2 distributions @1198.50-1198.75, right inside the singles from Friday (they didn't encounter any resistance in that area from sellers)

- good chance to open gap up, above VA, POC & range

- should we see further strength & buyers present, my plan is to buy any pullback into yesterday range: singles area @1194.75, VAH@1192.25, S@1196.25, VPOC@1191.00, with extended targets@1206.00, double TPO's from top of Friday's range.

- I'll be cautious if price finds acceptance below 1191.00, and if we get below and that attracts sellers i'll go short into S levels below.

- should we see choppy trade and low volume, i'll prepare to trade ranges, my plan is to sit calm, wait patiently for the range to develop and trade the extremes.

- most important, i'll be relaxed in the early minutes of morning trading to let the market tell me what it's doing.

Monday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 16/04: - Friday we had the biggest range day since I start trading the ES, 23.25 points range; and I was kinda of unprepared for taking advantage of it.

- from the Globex session we could see the first signs of weakness: a big ledge building up at 1206.50 and breakout to the downside off that ledge (theory: always place trades in the direction of the break-out from the ledge, in this case, shorts, see first MP chart). My conviction should have been greater since that level almost coincide with 1206.00, HVN acting like R in this case; 1206.00 acted like S for all Thursday session (trading below S, now turned into R, all Asia & Europe session, obvious signs of weakness, see 5 min volume profile chart). Also the low from O/N was made below Thursday range (sign of weakness, if we need more).

- open below VA and previous day range, weakness going on into the open. Price tried to auction up into VA during the IB, but failed and then the news about GS came out and sent the market down. There were several opportunities to go with the flow. Beside those early clues from O/N: short IBL, WVAH, short the first set of selling singles @1197.75, WIBL, WPOC.

- price found acceptance and start to build value & volume between 1186.00-1193.50, with extremely high volume traded at those prices. The low of the day was set @1182.75, price got rejected right away from that level (highest HVN since the beginning of April, previous week WPOC@1183.25); on the profile we have a buying tail showing the presence of buyers at those levels, in spite of the bad news and on heavy volume they drove the price above 1189.00 VPOC. (on 5 minutes volume profile chart we can see how the VPOC played the role of S/R, and how price moved between VPOC@1189.00 and WPOC@1193.50; VPOC shifted several times, by watching it closely I think I can develop a feel for how I can use this piece of the puzzle for more confidence if I'm in a trade, or to base some high probability trades off this dynamic intra-day reference point).

- MP and volume profile theories and levels worked great even on this bad news driven, large range day; I think it's very important to get one of the best trading locations on days like this, and than adjust your exit target judging by the price action, volume and order flow

- HVN & LVN playing key roles as S/R levels.
- Friday 16/04 is merged into W profile, we got RE (lower low)

- VA moved lower, being built in the lower part of the profile

- VVA located at the lower extreme of the range

- NPOC@1207.50; NPOC@1166.00 (HVN)

- key levels from the structure:

1. WVAH@1202.25, high probability of this level to act as a strong R, being LVN (rejection), as well as selling singles from 1199.75-1198.00
2. VAH@1196.50, WIBH@1195.75 also LVN, high probability to act as R
3. WPOC@1193.25-1193.50 & HVN (R for Friday session), initial R
4. VPOC@1189.00, POC@1189.50
5. WVAL@1185.75, WIB@1185.00, initial S
6. strong S area made by a confluence of levels: VAL@1184.50, buying tail 1184.25-1182.75, previous week's WPOC@1182.75, HVN
7. the next HVN below, strong S 1169.00-1166.00

- be aware of the new intra-day S/R levels, monitor the dVPOC, price action in regards to VA, RE, tails, singles, H/L VN.

- from now on I'll post scenarios for the first part of the day before the market opens, the idea is to be prepared for a variety of situations, not to get locked into a single one. The goal is to promote mental and behavioral flexibility, not to pull out a crystal ball. I want to practice "what-if" scenarios for the day, so I'll be prepared to act when market hits key predetermined price levels.

- morning scenarios: - during O/N we opened lower than Friday's close, below 1189.00 which was an important level Friday, being VPOC, S/R, most likely we'll open below that level, showing some weakness.

- if early selling cannot take us below ON L@1181.50 i'm going to expect a bounce from 1182.00-1183.00 area with initial target 1189.00 and extended target 1193.50, price getting acceptance inside VA, buying tail working as S/rejection area

- if we'll see signs of further weakness i'll be thinking to short bounces to VAL, 1189.00, POC for a move toward next levels of S@1180.25, 1179.00, 1177.50

- if we'll see low volume and choppy trade i'll be thinking range day and watch closely the dVPOC, let the range develop, wait patiently for price to get to extremes and i'll try to fade them

Most of all i'll sit calm and relax in the early minutes to let the market tell me what it's doing.

Thursday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 15/04: - after a trending day (14/04) it was expected for the market to consolidate at these new levels, showing acceptance, in order for the up move to be valid. The strength from yesterday went in today's open and market start auctioning right above VAH and accepting right away the HVN established yesterday at close, using the VPOC@1206.00 (level which played a significant S role through out all day) and the singles area as S for the first rotation up. The market rotated all day between new high @1210.50 and 1206.00, being rejected from the only test of VAH, showing strength and not too much aggressive sellers.

- my only trade for the day was short @1209.50, my attention of a possible shift in direction was draw when I saw significant change in book size, from offer to bid. Right away I noticed volume drying up at the high, having a rotational day bias, I chose that entry point because on the volume profile looked like a HVN (high probability level for a change in direction in a range market). As usual my exit was very poor @1206.25 for +3.25 points (i should use as exits obvious levels, like IBL), was greedy and expecting a rotation to O/N low or POC.

- obs. on today's structure development: - today it was another perfect day to observe some patterns occurring in the profile and the way market behave in relation to them.

- we had buy singles @1206.50-1206.75 in E period, confirmed in G period; on the way down when we get there we didn't encounter strong resistance, suggesting that the buyers didn't want to defend that area for the moment. (2nd fact that contributed to my confidence in staying in the trade, 1st was break of IBH and acceptance inside the IB)

- we had double TPO's at the bottom of the profile, low of the IB, which was taken out in I period

- we had 1 tick rejection from below IBL (theory: failed auction to key reference points, strong signal that the market will turn and start auction in the opposite direction)

- on the volume profile chart we can see the new HVN building up at the top of the range, between 1204.75 and 1210.25
- Thursday 15/04 is merged in W profile, we had again RE (higher high)

- price closed in the middle of VA & profile, above yesterday's range

- VA was built higher

- we have NPOC@1201.50 from 14/04 & NPOC@1190.75 from 12/04

- we have buying tail from 14/04 @1196.00-1197.00, same area as buy singles on W profile, also WIBH@1195.75, also LVN/rejection area on volume profile (if the buyers are still present to defend this area i expect it to hold as a strong S, providing a good location for a long; if they are not interested in this area will be a good area to watch for a test of the levels below)

- initial S=1206.00-1206.25, HVN, VAL

- S1=1204.75 WVAH, LVN

- S2=1201.50-1201.75, NPOC, LVN

- S3=1198.00 HVN

- strong S=1196.00 theory described above

- strong S=1193.50 WPOC, HVN

- initial R=1209.50 VAH

- R1=1210.50 HOY

- econ news:

- 8:30 building permits expected lower/high

- 8:30 house starts expected better/medium

- 9:55 uom consumer expected better/high

- after I'll analyze the O/N activity and profile, I'll readjust my levels if necessary & create scenarios for the first part of the day

Thursday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- some notes from my trading journal: - market opened above VA & yesterday's range, with a gap up (theory: a gap is an invisible tail, strong presence of the OTF from O/N session), being rejected from the top of the range and creating a buying tail early in the morning (theory: a tail is much powerful if it's created early in the session), all these were strong evidences of the OTF buyers being present. Daily structure evolved into an steady uptrend, pictured by time periods with HH & HL, with further RE in subsequent brackets, as well as double TPO's at the high (2 sets) each being taken by the next bracket. The presence of sellers wasn't aggressive enough.

- after the buying tail was confirmed, I entered long @1199.50 on a pullback in G period and after holding the trade for more than 2:30 hours I exit @1203.00 for +3.50 points. All these hints given by the developing structure during the day kept me in the trade with calm and confidence. I have a lot of work to do in managing the trade; lot of work to do on focusing after exiting one trade.

- obs. on ledge formation: - in the O/N profile (3rd MP chart) we can see a large ledge structure at the bottom of the profile, and during the Globex session there was a break out to the upside from that ledge. Theory: the ledge is an indication of balance & there is a high probability of a break out from ledge, trades should always be placed in the direction of the break out.

- obs. on the form of the profile: - elongated profiles are healthy signs that trade is being facilitated at current levels.

- Wednesday 14/04 is merged into weekly profile, actually is just a RE

- price closed above VA in the upper area of the structure

- VA was built higher and located in the middle of the profile

- VVA is located in the upper area of the profile and the VPOC@1206.00

- we have a buying tail @1197.00-1196.00, on the daily profile from, which on the W profile is a singles area, might act as S/rejection area (if the buyers are still there), area is a LVN

- we have a singles area @1205.75-1205.00, which can be treated as initial S if still defended by buyers

- we have a NPOC@1190.75 from 12/04

- initial S=1205.00-1205.75 singles area/LVN/rejection area/VPOC

- S1=1204.25-1204.50 hVN/VAH

- S2=1201.75-1201.50 LVN/POC

- S3=1198.50-1198.00-1197.50 VAL/HVN/WVAH

- S4=1196.00-1195.75 LVN/WIBH

- initial R=1207.50

- R1=1212.00-1213.00 from pivot farm

- econ news:

- 8:30 unemployment claims expected better/high

- 8:30 empire state manuf expected better/medium

- 9:00 tic long term expected better/high

- 9:15 capacity utiliz expected better/medium

- 10:00 philly fed expected better/high

- I have to find a form for my morning scenarios to post & track them

Wednesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- some notes from my trading journal: - opening just below VA but inside yesterday's range price made an attempt to auction higher into VA but failed and was rejected right away. As usual, a failed auction higher attracts sellers and price starts auctioning lower, testing some levels below. On it's move down price filled the NPOC@1187.50 and got rejected from 1185.00, which is an LVN (rejection area), being rejected several times from it. On the structure, price left a singles area @1189.00-1188.50 & a buying tail.

- in hindsight looks very good a short @1192.00=VAL, but it really was a trade I was thinking about when finalizing my scenarios for the day; of course I didn't take it (even if I keep repeating to myself: as long as I trade according with my plan, the damage is limited by my stop & I should accept losses as part of the game).

- after the IB was set, after the RE & buying tail was created, I entered long @1187.25. My trigger was the pattern of tails, which I'm observing, studying and trading it (with fairly success in entries but very weak on exits). In fact I wanted to go long @IBL but I did wait & rely on this pattern as a confirmation for the tail & no further RE, chasing the trade for 3 ticks. Well the exit was very poor and I really had no reason for getting out, but I did for +1.00 (needless to say where my exit should have been).

- obs. on the move back up: - after the singles area being cleared (singles being created by sellers; on the way back up price not being rejected from that area, showed us that sellers weren't there anymore, so another good confirmation for keeping me in the trade). The rise in dVPOC from 1188.00 to 1191.00 showed me that the move up was pretty strong, buyers defending new area, dVA shifting higher as well & created the base for the next step up (another confirmation of staying with the trade or entering in the right direction, didn't get filled).

- I'll keep posting volume profile charts as I find it helpful to track the evolution of levels
- Monday 12/04 & Tuesday 13/04 is merged together, creating the WIB, kinda neutral

- VA is located in the upper area of the structure

- we have a buying tail, rejection from previous week VA

- on the top of the structure we have double TPO's (theory suggesting that this indicates a lack of conviction from sellers, a high made by time & not aggressive opposite activity, in other words a level to be taken out)

- WPOC=1193.25 almost the peak of the HVN in this move up, important S/R area (confluence of levels: 1193.50=HVN, 1193.75=VAH)

- S1=1191.00-1190.75 WVAL, POC, HVN

- S2=1189.25-1188.25 LVN rejection area, VAL

- S3=1186.75=HVN, buying tail

- strong S=1183.25-1182.75 HVN, last week WPOC

- R1=1196.00 LVN rejection area

- R2=1198.50 Globex H from 11/04

- R3=1200.00

- R4=1206.00-1207.00 from Pivot Farm

- econ news:

- 8:30 core cpi expect the same/high impact

- 8:30 core retail expect lower/high impact

- 8:30 retail sales expect better/high impact

- 8:30 cpi expect better/medium impact

- 9:30 fed speech medium impact

-10:00 bernanke high impact

-10:00 bus inventories expect better/medium impact

-14:00 beige book medium impact

- after morning analysis I will make a few scenarios for the first part of the day and post them, as I think it will help me improve with my confidence. I'll keep track of them and see which one works best.

Tuesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- some notes from my trading journal: - today price was just building value higher at new levels created Friday, showing some sword of acceptance here (on low volume, tho, didn't looked to me very convincing). O/N activity was strong bullish, with an Globex open @1158.75, more than 5 points above Friday's close, to be honest I was expecting a much spectacular day. In fact was exactly one of those days in which the only one smiling is your broker. Which wasn't the case for me, and I have to put a smile on my face for this reason, as I'm working hard on my patience & discipline.

- I haven't made any trades, I just sat there, watching the grass growing and observing the forming of the bell curve, the development of a balanced day out of balance (by its location above VA).

- I was looking to go long from 1191.50, when price first hit that level (singles, acting as S, indication of OTF buyers, high probability of their presence still there, judging on context & previous day activity), but I was expecting price to test VAH and I prepared myself for a long from there. I was aware, tho, that there are several obstacles for the price to get to VAH (those singles areas=S). Anyway, I'm OK with the observations I make, I just have to grow the necessary confidence to trade the hypothesis & see which works best.

- obs. of the tail setup: - have to mention the development and validity of the selling tail setup, which I traded on Wednesday, 07/04: selling tail in K period, confirmed on the start of M period (short from the top of M period, or other reference point that might be there, ex. dVAH, IBH, S/R, with an initial target @dVAL, IBL). Trading this setup you have to be aware of the daily context as well as the time when occurs. Same setup for buying tails.

- VA shifted higher, but in a tight range

- VA is condensed in to 2.25 points range (1194.25-1192.00), with POC=1193.25, VVPOC=1193.00=S, at the top of previous week's profile: I'm expected this VA to act as an strong S/R area for now, being the confluence of levels here and the location

- initial S=1189.00 2nd set of singles from Friday, as well as LVN (price can be either rejected from here or to pass right away through it)

- S1=1187.50-1187.75 NPOC, VPOC & WVAH

- S=1186.75; 1185.50 HVN from volume profile chart

- strong S=1183.25-1182.75 WPOC & HVN from vol profile chart

- don't forget about singles in Thursday profile & NPOC=1166.00

- R=1195.75 LVN, rejection area

- R1=1198.50 high from O/N session (area marked by a shy selling tail in the O/N profile)

- strong R=1200.00 (round number, psycho level?)

- econ news:

- 8:30 trade balance expected worse/high impact

- 8:30 import prices expected better/medium impact

-10:00 econ optimism expected better/low impact

- after morning analysis of the O/N activity I'll readjust my levels & develop my trading plan for the first part of the day

Monday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- some notes from my trading journal: - after a strong, steady uptrend like Thursday it was somehow normal to have a consolidation day like Friday, with a possible break out in the direction of the overall trend. After opening slightly above VA & range price started to auction lower into previous day VA, but got rejected right away & rotated for most of the day into a narrow range of 4 points with S=VAH. Building value right above previous VA & being rejected several times from VAH, showed that price doesn't want to go back in yesterday's value and it's happy at these higher prices, so by implication a possible move to the upside was the highest probability scenario.

The breakout happened during the closing range, leaving behind a singles area & closing right on the high of the day @1193.00, showing that the strength & determination of buyers is still strong.

I haven't made any trades, although the long from VAH or from dVAL looked to me very appealing, especially in day's context, with a small RE to the upside, theory suggesting that a further range extension is highly possible. Also I observed price being rejected right away from POC, an indication and confirmation of the previous day's strength.

A quick summary of my last trading week:

- I did see improvements on my patience, I rushed in only one trade, even if it was a winning trade with a good reason behind, the risk was too high. The good thing about it: I recognized right away the shift in control & closed the trade quick.

- I do see improvements on my analysis, I don't have the confidence to take all the trades I see, yet, but I'm looking to take those with high reward/low risk.

- I have to work on my exits, as most of them are poor. I think this will come along with my confidence, but is something I'll have to focus on.

- As long as I execute the trades according to my plan, I should not be afraid of a loosing trade, the stop will minimize the damage.

- Trades taken from the extremes of a neutral weekly profile: I should hold them for more points as they are the most rewarding ones.

- Friday 09/04 is merged into W profile, WIB is bullish

- WVA shifted higher, WPOC remained at the same price

- daily chart is a strong uptrend

- we had a RE to the upside (higher high) to 1193.00, and we closed at the high of the day & week

- we have singles from 1189.00-1190.25 & from 1191.50-1193.00 (I will not treat the last set of singles as a tail, but as singles because price closed at the high)

- we have singles from Thursday profile as well

- initial S=1191.50 (singles, HVN), S1=1190.50 (HVN), S2=1189.00 (singles, LVN), strong S=1188.50-1187.75 (VAH, POC, WVAH), S3=1185.50, strong S=1183.25-1182.75 (WPOC, HVN)

- R1=1197.25, R2=1201.00, R3=1204.50, pretty hard to determine levels above as I have so little info

- econ news: - 14:00 federal budget balance expected better/medium impact

- after reviewing Globex activity, I'll readjust my levels, finalize my plan and trading strategy

Friday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- some notes from my trading journal: - after open below VA & in range, price started to auction down looking to probe the O/N L & interestingly enough got rejected right away from VAH from last week, the move down there attracted buyers which were present all day, driving price higher into yesterday VAH & leaving behind strong evidences of their presence (3 singles zones).

- 1st trade was on the auction down, after the open, I took a short @ 1173.75 which was the close of the previous week & exited @ 1171.50 for a +2.25, after price being rejected from 1171.00 LOD, CVD together with the order flow took me out of the trade as I saw buyers coming in

- 2nd trade I took was long @ 1175.50 IBH & exit @ 1178.25 for a +2.75, after the IB was set price found S around IBH and because tested the levels below & got rejected, the next logical move was to test the levels above. Unfortunately I didn't expect the price to trend all day long, being accustomed with small ranges & I exited the trade in front of VAL, even if the CVD confirmed that buyers were coming in large numbers (turning positive right before my exit should have help me to stay in the trade, CVD kept growing all the way up, CVD it's just another tool for measuring the order flow to help me stay in trades by showing that the wind is behind me)

- 3rd trade was short @ 1183.00 POC, having above WPOC, I thought that might be a good turning point, but it wasn't; price got rejected 1.5 points from that level but I didn't close my trade for a profit. I scratched the trade at BE when I saw the VPOC shifting higher from 1175.50 to 1181.75, my reaction was a bit slow because price was trading down below my entry but the CVD was growing

- looking at things this way seems to me very simple, logic & effective. I believe in Kevin's quote: "trading is as simple or as hard as you make it", so I hope I'll be able to develop my setups and trading plan simple enough yet effective.

- Thursday 08/04 is merged into W profile; WIB is bullish, the shape & the levels of the W profile didn't change much

- we had a further RE down today (lower low), 2 points, but price managed to close in the upper VA and range, above POC, near the highs of the day

- VA is very wide, overlapping the past 4 days

- 3 singles zones in the profile, might act as S areas, at a closer look all these singles areas coincides with LVN in the volume profile chart (rejection area)

- double TPO's on top of the profile (theory suggesting that this indicates a lack of conviction from sellers, a high made by time & not aggressive opposite activity, in other words a level to be taken out) Friday, the theory proved right

- initial S=1182.75=HVN (POC, WPOC area), S1=1181.25 (LVN & single @1181.00), S2=1179.50 (LVN & singles @1179.50 to 1179.00), S3=1177.50 (LVN & singles @1177.75-1177.50), S=1175.75 & lower see the volume profile chart

- initial R=1185.00 (double TPO's), R1=1187.50-1188.00 (HOW & 3 TPO's selling tail), R2=1191.50, R3=1197.25

- econ news: no news release

- I'll finalize my trading plan in the morning after reviewing Globex activity & levels

Thursday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- just some notes from my trading journal of today's activity: - I noticed some weakness from the O/N activity (O/N L was 1180.00 below VA, O/N H was 1186.25=VAH); open in lower VA, price failed to move higher to VAH; after the IB was set price went to probe the O/N L, took it by 1.25 points and than moved to probe the IBH & O/N H. Couldn't take out the O/N H, which seemed like a failed auction to a higher reference point, weakness, fact that attracted more sellers and they drove the prices lower to NPOC=1173.75 from 01/04.

On MP chart the start of the move down looked like a selling tail in K period, confirmed after the M period started, level which coincided with IBH & dVAH. This setup made me take a short @1184.50, unfortunately I exited too soon at 1180.75. I did see the CVD curving down and growing negatively very aggressive, meaning that there were much more sellers than buyers, and when it hit the single prints tail went tumbling down to the most obvious level below, NPOC.

Every day is a learning experience for me and I'm glad that I start looking at market through MP. I'll keep focusing on this perspective & I think it's a matter of time till I'll grow the necessary confidence in things I'm seeing. I know that sometimes I tend to over-analyze and over-think the things happening and missing the trades for this reason, but I also believe that I'm gonna get to a point when all this will come naturally and by focusing on executing my trading plan with discipline & patience each day I will be able to pull the trigger exactly at the right time.

Will see how I'm gonna evolve ...

- Wednesday 07/04 is merged into the W profile; WIB is bullish (because of the vacation wouldn't count on too much bullishness of the IB)

- we had a RE to the downside (lower low), 1.25 points, represented by a buying tail

- price broke below the trend line & S=1175.75 quite easily to the next S=1173.50 being rejected just from this level

- yesterday VAH/L, POC almost coincides with levels from W profile (difference by 1 tick)

- initial S=1175.75, S1=1173.50 (tested & rejected yesterday, buyers present), strong S=1169.25-1167.50 area=HVN

- NPOC=1166.00 from 31/03 (possible target if price will slide); NPOC=1139.25 from 15/03

- initial R=1179.50 (VAL area), R1=1182.50 (POC area), strong R=1185.50 (VAH area), R2=1188.00 (HOW), R3=1191.50 (HVN)

- econ news: 8:30 unemployment claims expected better

- in the morning I'll analyze the MP chart with Globex activity, readjust my levels if necessary and develop my trading plan for the day

Wednesday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- a little recap for the past week: after we escaped from the congestion zone with R around 1171.00 area, from last week of March, we start the month of April with a slow steady up move. VA continue to build higher, each day any move back into previous day's VA is being rejected and price makes new highs, leaving behind buying tails.

- just a quick observation from yesterday: - open below VA, price came down into the buying tail zone from previous day, buyers stepped in rejected price higher through previous day VA and extended the range to new highs.

- weekly IB for the week starting 05/04 is bullish with a new high @ 1188.00 and a low @ 1174.50, starting point of a pretty long buying tail (3.75 points)

- WVA concentrated into a 4.50 points range with WPOC=1182.75 which coincide with S=HVN

- on the upside we have a shy selling tail, just 3 TPO's

- from yesterday profile we have a buying tail, price being rejected right away from 1177.50 area which I see it as a strong S for now (we had a bounce of 6 points on Monday & 10.50 points on Tuesday off that level), showing the presence of some buyers in that zone & below to the next area of S=1175.00-1173.50

- VAL=1181.75 coincide with a level of S from MP and also with a LVN (rejection area)

- initial S=1182.75; S1=1180.00; strong S=1177.50; S3=1175.00 and below strongest S=1169.25

- initial R=1185.50; R1=1188.00 (HOY); R2=1191.50; R3=1197.25

- NPOC=1173.75 from 01/04; NPOC=1166.00 from 31/03; NPOC=1139.25 from 15/03

- econ news: there are no news except for a speech of Bernanke at 1:30 PM

- after I'll analyze the Globex session and readjust my levels, if necessary, I'll work on my trading plan for the first part of the day & I'll focus on patience & confidence in executing my plan.