- some notes from my trading journal: - opening just below VA but inside yesterday's range price made an attempt to auction higher into VA but failed and was rejected right away. As usual, a failed auction higher attracts sellers and price starts auctioning lower, testing some levels below. On it's move down price filled the NPOC@1187.50 and got rejected from 1185.00, which is an LVN (rejection area), being rejected several times from it. On the structure, price left a singles area @1189.00-1188.50 & a buying tail.
- in hindsight looks very good a short @1192.00=VAL, but it really was a trade I was thinking about when finalizing my scenarios for the day; of course I didn't take it (even if I keep repeating to myself: as long as I trade according with my plan, the damage is limited by my stop & I should accept losses as part of the game).
- after the IB was set, after the RE & buying tail was created, I entered long @1187.25. My trigger was the pattern of tails, which I'm observing, studying and trading it (with fairly success in entries but very weak on exits). In fact I wanted to go long @IBL but I did wait & rely on this pattern as a confirmation for the tail & no further RE, chasing the trade for 3 ticks. Well the exit was very poor and I really had no reason for getting out, but I did for +1.00 (needless to say where my exit should have been).
- obs. on the move back up: - after the singles area being cleared (singles being created by sellers; on the way back up price not being rejected from that area, showed us that sellers weren't there anymore, so another good confirmation for keeping me in the trade). The rise in dVPOC from 1188.00 to 1191.00 showed me that the move up was pretty strong, buyers defending new area, dVA shifting higher as well & created the base for the next step up (another confirmation of staying with the trade or entering in the right direction, didn't get filled).
- I'll keep posting volume profile charts as I find it helpful to track the evolution of levels
- Monday 12/04 & Tuesday 13/04 is merged together, creating the WIB, kinda neutral- VA is located in the upper area of the structure
- we have a buying tail, rejection from previous week VA
- on the top of the structure we have double TPO's (theory suggesting that this indicates a lack of conviction from sellers, a high made by time & not aggressive opposite activity, in other words a level to be taken out)
- WPOC=1193.25 almost the peak of the HVN in this move up, important S/R area (confluence of levels: 1193.50=HVN, 1193.75=VAH)
- S1=1191.00-1190.75 WVAL, POC, HVN
- S2=1189.25-1188.25 LVN rejection area, VAL
- S3=1186.75=HVN, buying tail
- strong S=1183.25-1182.75 HVN, last week WPOC
- R1=1196.00 LVN rejection area
- R2=1198.50 Globex H from 11/04
- R3=1200.00
- R4=1206.00-1207.00 from Pivot Farm
- econ news:
- 8:30 core cpi expect the same/high impact
- 8:30 core retail expect lower/high impact
- 8:30 retail sales expect better/high impact
- 8:30 cpi expect better/medium impact
- 9:30 fed speech medium impact
-10:00 bernanke high impact
-10:00 bus inventories expect better/medium impact
-14:00 beige book medium impact
- after morning analysis I will make a few scenarios for the first part of the day and post them, as I think it will help me improve with my confidence. I'll keep track of them and see which one works best.
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