- just some notes from my trading journal of today's activity: - I noticed some weakness from the O/N activity (O/N L was 1180.00 below VA, O/N H was 1186.25=VAH); open in lower VA, price failed to move higher to VAH; after the IB was set price went to probe the O/N L, took it by 1.25 points and than moved to probe the IBH & O/N H. Couldn't take out the O/N H, which seemed like a failed auction to a higher reference point, weakness, fact that attracted more sellers and they drove the prices lower to NPOC=1173.75 from 01/04.
On MP chart the start of the move down looked like a selling tail in K period, confirmed after the M period started, level which coincided with IBH & dVAH. This setup made me take a short @1184.50, unfortunately I exited too soon at 1180.75. I did see the CVD curving down and growing negatively very aggressive, meaning that there were much more sellers than buyers, and when it hit the single prints tail went tumbling down to the most obvious level below, NPOC.
Every day is a learning experience for me and I'm glad that I start looking at market through MP. I'll keep focusing on this perspective & I think it's a matter of time till I'll grow the necessary confidence in things I'm seeing. I know that sometimes I tend to over-analyze and over-think the things happening and missing the trades for this reason, but I also believe that I'm gonna get to a point when all this will come naturally and by focusing on executing my trading plan with discipline & patience each day I will be able to pull the trigger exactly at the right time.
Will see how I'm gonna evolve ...
- Wednesday 07/04 is merged into the W profile; WIB is bullish (because of the vacation wouldn't count on too much bullishness of the IB)
- we had a RE to the downside (lower low), 1.25 points, represented by a buying tail
- price broke below the trend line & S=1175.75 quite easily to the next S=1173.50 being rejected just from this level
- yesterday VAH/L, POC almost coincides with levels from W profile (difference by 1 tick)
- initial S=1175.75, S1=1173.50 (tested & rejected yesterday, buyers present), strong S=1169.25-1167.50 area=HVN
- NPOC=1166.00 from 31/03 (possible target if price will slide); NPOC=1139.25 from 15/03
- initial R=1179.50 (VAL area), R1=1182.50 (POC area), strong R=1185.50 (VAH area), R2=1188.00 (HOW), R3=1191.50 (HVN)
- econ news: 8:30 unemployment claims expected better
- in the morning I'll analyze the MP chart with Globex activity, readjust my levels if necessary and develop my trading plan for the day
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