Thursday, April 8, 2010

Friday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- some notes from my trading journal: - after open below VA & in range, price started to auction down looking to probe the O/N L & interestingly enough got rejected right away from VAH from last week, the move down there attracted buyers which were present all day, driving price higher into yesterday VAH & leaving behind strong evidences of their presence (3 singles zones).
- 1st trade was on the auction down, after the open, I took a short @ 1173.75 which was the close of the previous week & exited @ 1171.50 for a +2.25, after price being rejected from 1171.00 LOD, CVD together with the order flow took me out of the trade as I saw buyers coming in
- 2nd trade I took was long @ 1175.50 IBH & exit @ 1178.25 for a +2.75, after the IB was set price found S around IBH and because tested the levels below & got rejected, the next logical move was to test the levels above. Unfortunately I didn't expect the price to trend all day long, being accustomed with small ranges & I exited the trade in front of VAL, even if the CVD confirmed that buyers were coming in large numbers (turning positive right before my exit should have help me to stay in the trade, CVD kept growing all the way up, CVD it's just another tool for measuring the order flow to help me stay in trades by showing that the wind is behind me)
- 3rd trade was short @ 1183.00 POC, having above WPOC, I thought that might be a good turning point, but it wasn't; price got rejected 1.5 points from that level but I didn't close my trade for a profit. I scratched the trade at BE when I saw the VPOC shifting higher from 1175.50 to 1181.75, my reaction was a bit slow because price was trading down below my entry but the CVD was growing

- looking at things this way seems to me very simple, logic & effective. I believe in Kevin's quote: "trading is as simple or as hard as you make it", so I hope I'll be able to develop my setups and trading plan simple enough yet effective.





- Thursday 08/04 is merged into W profile; WIB is bullish, the shape & the levels of the W profile didn't change much
- we had a further RE down today (lower low), 2 points, but price managed to close in the upper VA and range, above POC, near the highs of the day
- VA is very wide, overlapping the past 4 days
- 3 singles zones in the profile, might act as S areas, at a closer look all these singles areas coincides with LVN in the volume profile chart (rejection area)
- double TPO's on top of the profile (theory suggesting that this indicates a lack of conviction from sellers, a high made by time & not aggressive opposite activity, in other words a level to be taken out) Friday, the theory proved right

- initial S=1182.75=HVN (POC, WPOC area), S1=1181.25 (LVN & single @1181.00), S2=1179.50 (LVN & singles @1179.50 to 1179.00), S3=1177.50 (LVN & singles @1177.75-1177.50), S=1175.75 & lower see the volume profile chart
- initial R=1185.00 (double TPO's), R1=1187.50-1188.00 (HOW & 3 TPO's selling tail), R2=1191.50, R3=1197.25

- econ news: no news release

- I'll finalize my trading plan in the morning after reviewing Globex activity & levels

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