- some notes from my trading journal: - after a strong, steady uptrend like Thursday it was somehow normal to have a consolidation day like Friday, with a possible break out in the direction of the overall trend. After opening slightly above VA & range price started to auction lower into previous day VA, but got rejected right away & rotated for most of the day into a narrow range of 4 points with S=VAH. Building value right above previous VA & being rejected several times from VAH, showed that price doesn't want to go back in yesterday's value and it's happy at these higher prices, so by implication a possible move to the upside was the highest probability scenario.
The breakout happened during the closing range, leaving behind a singles area & closing right on the high of the day @1193.00, showing that the strength & determination of buyers is still strong.
I haven't made any trades, although the long from VAH or from dVAL looked to me very appealing, especially in day's context, with a small RE to the upside, theory suggesting that a further range extension is highly possible. Also I observed price being rejected right away from POC, an indication and confirmation of the previous day's strength.
A quick summary of my last trading week:
- I did see improvements on my patience, I rushed in only one trade, even if it was a winning trade with a good reason behind, the risk was too high. The good thing about it: I recognized right away the shift in control & closed the trade quick.
- I do see improvements on my analysis, I don't have the confidence to take all the trades I see, yet, but I'm looking to take those with high reward/low risk.
- I have to work on my exits, as most of them are poor. I think this will come along with my confidence, but is something I'll have to focus on.
- As long as I execute the trades according to my plan, I should not be afraid of a loosing trade, the stop will minimize the damage.
- Trades taken from the extremes of a neutral weekly profile: I should hold them for more points as they are the most rewarding ones.
- Friday 09/04 is merged into W profile, WIB is bullish
- WVA shifted higher, WPOC remained at the same price
- daily chart is a strong uptrend
- we had a RE to the upside (higher high) to 1193.00, and we closed at the high of the day & week
- we have singles from 1189.00-1190.25 & from 1191.50-1193.00 (I will not treat the last set of singles as a tail, but as singles because price closed at the high)
- we have singles from Thursday profile as well
- initial S=1191.50 (singles, HVN), S1=1190.50 (HVN), S2=1189.00 (singles, LVN), strong S=1188.50-1187.75 (VAH, POC, WVAH), S3=1185.50, strong S=1183.25-1182.75 (WPOC, HVN)
- R1=1197.25, R2=1201.00, R3=1204.50, pretty hard to determine levels above as I have so little info
- econ news: - 14:00 federal budget balance expected better/medium impact
- after reviewing Globex activity, I'll readjust my levels, finalize my plan and trading strategy
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