- notes from my trading journal 15/04: - after a trending day (14/04) it was expected for the market to consolidate at these new levels, showing acceptance, in order for the up move to be valid. The strength from yesterday went in today's open and market start auctioning right above VAH and accepting right away the HVN established yesterday at close, using the VPOC@1206.00 (level which played a significant S role through out all day) and the singles area as S for the first rotation up. The market rotated all day between new high @1210.50 and 1206.00, being rejected from the only test of VAH, showing strength and not too much aggressive sellers.
- my only trade for the day was short @1209.50, my attention of a possible shift in direction was draw when I saw significant change in book size, from offer to bid. Right away I noticed volume drying up at the high, having a rotational day bias, I chose that entry point because on the volume profile looked like a HVN (high probability level for a change in direction in a range market). As usual my exit was very poor @1206.25 for +3.25 points (i should use as exits obvious levels, like IBL), was greedy and expecting a rotation to O/N low or POC.
- obs. on today's structure development: - today it was another perfect day to observe some patterns occurring in the profile and the way market behave in relation to them.
- we had buy singles @1206.50-1206.75 in E period, confirmed in G period; on the way down when we get there we didn't encounter strong resistance, suggesting that the buyers didn't want to defend that area for the moment. (2nd fact that contributed to my confidence in staying in the trade, 1st was break of IBH and acceptance inside the IB)
- we had double TPO's at the bottom of the profile, low of the IB, which was taken out in I period
- we had 1 tick rejection from below IBL (theory: failed auction to key reference points, strong signal that the market will turn and start auction in the opposite direction)
- on the volume profile chart we can see the new HVN building up at the top of the range, between 1204.75 and 1210.25
- Thursday 15/04 is merged in W profile, we had again RE (higher high)- price closed in the middle of VA & profile, above yesterday's range
- VA was built higher
- we have NPOC@1201.50 from 14/04 & NPOC@1190.75 from 12/04
- we have buying tail from 14/04 @1196.00-1197.00, same area as buy singles on W profile, also WIBH@1195.75, also LVN/rejection area on volume profile (if the buyers are still present to defend this area i expect it to hold as a strong S, providing a good location for a long; if they are not interested in this area will be a good area to watch for a test of the levels below)
- initial S=1206.00-1206.25, HVN, VAL
- S1=1204.75 WVAH, LVN
- S2=1201.50-1201.75, NPOC, LVN
- S3=1198.00 HVN
- strong S=1196.00 theory described above
- strong S=1193.50 WPOC, HVN
- initial R=1209.50 VAH
- R1=1210.50 HOY
- econ news:
- 8:30 building permits expected lower/high
- 8:30 house starts expected better/medium
- 9:55 uom consumer expected better/high
- after I'll analyze the O/N activity and profile, I'll readjust my levels if necessary & create scenarios for the first part of the day
No comments:
Post a Comment