Monday - calm confidence in unpredictable

- notes from my trading journal 16/04: - Friday we had the biggest range day since I start trading the ES, 23.25 points range; and I was kinda of unprepared for taking advantage of it.

- from the Globex session we could see the first signs of weakness: a big ledge building up at 1206.50 and breakout to the downside off that ledge (theory: always place trades in the direction of the break-out from the ledge, in this case, shorts, see first MP chart). My conviction should have been greater since that level almost coincide with 1206.00, HVN acting like R in this case; 1206.00 acted like S for all Thursday session (trading below S, now turned into R, all Asia & Europe session, obvious signs of weakness, see 5 min volume profile chart). Also the low from O/N was made below Thursday range (sign of weakness, if we need more).

- open below VA and previous day range, weakness going on into the open. Price tried to auction up into VA during the IB, but failed and then the news about GS came out and sent the market down. There were several opportunities to go with the flow. Beside those early clues from O/N: short IBL, WVAH, short the first set of selling singles @1197.75, WIBL, WPOC.

- price found acceptance and start to build value & volume between 1186.00-1193.50, with extremely high volume traded at those prices. The low of the day was set @1182.75, price got rejected right away from that level (highest HVN since the beginning of April, previous week WPOC@1183.25); on the profile we have a buying tail showing the presence of buyers at those levels, in spite of the bad news and on heavy volume they drove the price above 1189.00 VPOC. (on 5 minutes volume profile chart we can see how the VPOC played the role of S/R, and how price moved between VPOC@1189.00 and WPOC@1193.50; VPOC shifted several times, by watching it closely I think I can develop a feel for how I can use this piece of the puzzle for more confidence if I'm in a trade, or to base some high probability trades off this dynamic intra-day reference point).

- MP and volume profile theories and levels worked great even on this bad news driven, large range day; I think it's very important to get one of the best trading locations on days like this, and than adjust your exit target judging by the price action, volume and order flow

- HVN & LVN playing key roles as S/R levels.
- Friday 16/04 is merged into W profile, we got RE (lower low)

- VA moved lower, being built in the lower part of the profile

- VVA located at the lower extreme of the range

- NPOC@1207.50; NPOC@1166.00 (HVN)

- key levels from the structure:

1. WVAH@1202.25, high probability of this level to act as a strong R, being LVN (rejection), as well as selling singles from 1199.75-1198.00
2. VAH@1196.50, WIBH@1195.75 also LVN, high probability to act as R
3. WPOC@1193.25-1193.50 & HVN (R for Friday session), initial R
4. VPOC@1189.00, POC@1189.50
5. WVAL@1185.75, WIB@1185.00, initial S
6. strong S area made by a confluence of levels: VAL@1184.50, buying tail 1184.25-1182.75, previous week's WPOC@1182.75, HVN
7. the next HVN below, strong S 1169.00-1166.00

- be aware of the new intra-day S/R levels, monitor the dVPOC, price action in regards to VA, RE, tails, singles, H/L VN.

- from now on I'll post scenarios for the first part of the day before the market opens, the idea is to be prepared for a variety of situations, not to get locked into a single one. The goal is to promote mental and behavioral flexibility, not to pull out a crystal ball. I want to practice "what-if" scenarios for the day, so I'll be prepared to act when market hits key predetermined price levels.

- morning scenarios: - during O/N we opened lower than Friday's close, below 1189.00 which was an important level Friday, being VPOC, S/R, most likely we'll open below that level, showing some weakness.

- if early selling cannot take us below ON L@1181.50 i'm going to expect a bounce from 1182.00-1183.00 area with initial target 1189.00 and extended target 1193.50, price getting acceptance inside VA, buying tail working as S/rejection area

- if we'll see signs of further weakness i'll be thinking to short bounces to VAL, 1189.00, POC for a move toward next levels of S@1180.25, 1179.00, 1177.50

- if we'll see low volume and choppy trade i'll be thinking range day and watch closely the dVPOC, let the range develop, wait patiently for price to get to extremes and i'll try to fade them

Most of all i'll sit calm and relax in the early minutes to let the market tell me what it's doing.