- notes from my trading journal 19/04: - first, I want to mention that part of my scenario worked out very good, I took advantage of it just partially.
- open just below VAL, started to auction up to 1193.25=WPOC and R from Friday, got rejected right away from that level and start auctioning to test the levels below, pausing at each logical level: POC, IBL, VAL, finally took out the ONL. Price tried to build value below Friday's VA, but failed and initiative buyers stepped in and drove price back into previous day's VA and right to the VAH by making us neutral for the day with RE up. Strong finish, with close near the highs, VA overlapping previous VA, rising POC, elongated profile (sign that trade is facilitated at these levels). VVA moved at the top of the profile, confirming buyers control.
- bottom line is that important levels seems to work great, I think it's important to weight them by their importance and use them accordingly. (short from 1193.00 area was a pretty sure trade being the huge R that served Friday, WPOC, newly IBH)
- obs. on volume building up to the bottom of the range: - we can see huge volume traded between 1183.25-1182.00, at the bottom of the range, after the low of the day was set. Theory: if volume starts to build at the bottom/top of the range, price needs to auction lower/higher to shut off the activity, in order to move back up/down. This is what happened today (Friday, too), after failing in several times to auction back into VA, went quick down, after that went straight up, "piercing and going all the way through the balloon".
- key levels/areas from the structure: - buying tail 1180.75-1179.75, area defended by buyers, should act as S
- VAL@1183.00 coincide with previous week's WPOC, also HVN, should act as strong S
- POC@1187.75, HVN should act as S
- VAH@1192.25, VPOC@1191.00, WPOC@1193.25 & R turned S, depending on ON activity this area should play an key role in tomorrow's action
- from Friday's profile we have selling singles 1199.75-1198.00, this area should act as initial R, area to watch if we trade here
- WVAH@1202.25 should act as R
- double TPO's@1206.00 top of Friday's range
- NPOC@1207.50 from 15/04
- scenarios: - strength from yesterday went in to O/N session, profile looking like a double distribution up trend day, with singles between 2 distributions @1198.50-1198.75, right inside the singles from Friday (they didn't encounter any resistance in that area from sellers)
- good chance to open gap up, above VA, POC & range
- should we see further strength & buyers present, my plan is to buy any pullback into yesterday range: singles area @1194.75, VAH@1192.25, S@1196.25, VPOC@1191.00, with extended targets@1206.00, double TPO's from top of Friday's range.
- I'll be cautious if price finds acceptance below 1191.00, and if we get below and that attracts sellers i'll go short into S levels below.
- should we see choppy trade and low volume, i'll prepare to trade ranges, my plan is to sit calm, wait patiently for the range to develop and trade the extremes.
- most important, i'll be relaxed in the early minutes of morning trading to let the market tell me what it's doing.
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