- some notes from my trading journal: - today price was just building value higher at new levels created Friday, showing some sword of acceptance here (on low volume, tho, didn't looked to me very convincing). O/N activity was strong bullish, with an Globex open @1158.75, more than 5 points above Friday's close, to be honest I was expecting a much spectacular day. In fact was exactly one of those days in which the only one smiling is your broker. Which wasn't the case for me, and I have to put a smile on my face for this reason, as I'm working hard on my patience & discipline.
- I haven't made any trades, I just sat there, watching the grass growing and observing the forming of the bell curve, the development of a balanced day out of balance (by its location above VA).
- I was looking to go long from 1191.50, when price first hit that level (singles, acting as S, indication of OTF buyers, high probability of their presence still there, judging on context & previous day activity), but I was expecting price to test VAH and I prepared myself for a long from there. I was aware, tho, that there are several obstacles for the price to get to VAH (those singles areas=S). Anyway, I'm OK with the observations I make, I just have to grow the necessary confidence to trade the hypothesis & see which works best.
- obs. of the tail setup: - have to mention the development and validity of the selling tail setup, which I traded on Wednesday, 07/04: selling tail in K period, confirmed on the start of M period (short from the top of M period, or other reference point that might be there, ex. dVAH, IBH, S/R, with an initial target @dVAL, IBL). Trading this setup you have to be aware of the daily context as well as the time when occurs. Same setup for buying tails.
- VA shifted higher, but in a tight range- VA is condensed in to 2.25 points range (1194.25-1192.00), with POC=1193.25, VVPOC=1193.00=S, at the top of previous week's profile: I'm expected this VA to act as an strong S/R area for now, being the confluence of levels here and the location
- initial S=1189.00 2nd set of singles from Friday, as well as LVN (price can be either rejected from here or to pass right away through it)
- S1=1187.50-1187.75 NPOC, VPOC & WVAH
- S=1186.75; 1185.50 HVN from volume profile chart
- strong S=1183.25-1182.75 WPOC & HVN from vol profile chart
- don't forget about singles in Thursday profile & NPOC=1166.00
- R=1195.75 LVN, rejection area
- R1=1198.50 high from O/N session (area marked by a shy selling tail in the O/N profile)
- strong R=1200.00 (round number, psycho level?)
- econ news:
- 8:30 trade balance expected worse/high impact
- 8:30 import prices expected better/medium impact
-10:00 econ optimism expected better/low impact
- after morning analysis of the O/N activity I'll readjust my levels & develop my trading plan for the first part of the day
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